博弈论

视频信息 标题: 耶鲁大学博弈论公开课 - 第1集 导论-五个入门结论 BV号: BV1u54y1k74g 分集: p1 时长: 68分34秒（4114秒） 作者/来源: 耶鲁大学公开课 原始链接: B站视频 转录方式: Groq Whisper 英文转录；英文在前，中文在后逐段对照。 视频摘要 本集是耶鲁大学博弈论公开课第 1 集，主题为“导论-五个入门结论”。课程以英文课堂讲授和互动讨论为主体，围绕课程定位与博弈论入门展开，逐步引入博弈论中关于策略、收益、信息、均衡和动态推理的分析框架。本文提供英文原文与中文译文逐段对照，便于跟读、检索和复习。 核心要点 课程定位与博弈论入门：本集围绕“导论-五个入门结论”展开，是理解后续博弈论模型和课堂案例的基础。 战略环境与收益目标：讲授重点放在参与者如何根据目标、信息和他人行为选择策略。 严格劣势策略：课堂通过案例、提问或推导展示抽象模型如何落到具体决策情境。 课堂实验与五个入门结论：内容强调从结果反推策略条件，训练形式化的战略思维。 点击展开完整转录（68分34秒完整版，中英双语） 视频全文转录（中英双语） 以下为完整中英双语转录，已加标点。英文在前，中文在后，逐段对照。 由 Groq Whisper 转录 → M2.7 B 方案整文标点 + 分段 → M2.7 段号保留翻译 → 逐段对照。 [段 1] So this is Game Theory Economics 159. If you’re here for Art History, you’re either in the wrong room or stay anyway. Maybe this is the right room, but this is Game Theory, okay? You should have four handouts. Everyone should have four handouts. There is a legal release form. We’ll talk about it in a minute, about the videoing. There is a syllabus, which is a preliminary syllabus. It’s also online, and there are two games, labelled Game 1 and Game 2. Can I get you all to look at Game 1 and start thinking about it? And while you’re thinking about it, I’m hoping you can multitask a bit, and I’ll describe a bit about the class, and we’ll get a bit of admin under our belts. But please try and look at, if somebody’s not looking at it because they’re using it as a fan here, so look at Game 1 and fill out that form for me, okay? So while you’re filling that out, let me tell you a little bit about what we’re going to be doing here. So what is game theory? Game theory is a method of studying strategic situations. Okay, so what’s a strategic situation? Well, let’s start off with what’s not a strategic situation. In your economics, in your intro economics class in 115 or 110, you saw some pretty good examples of situations that were not strategic. ...

视频信息 标题: 耶鲁大学博弈论公开课 - 第2集 沉默，信令和苦难教育 BV号: BV1u54y1k74g 分集: p2 时长: 70分37秒（4237秒） 作者/来源: 耶鲁大学公开课 原始链接: B站视频 转录方式: Groq Whisper 英文转录；英文在前，中文在后逐段对照。 视频摘要 本集是耶鲁大学博弈论公开课第 2 集，主题为“沉默，信令和苦难教育”。课程以英文课堂讲授和互动讨论为主体，围绕信号与沉默展开，逐步引入博弈论中关于策略、收益、信息、均衡和动态推理的分析框架。本文提供英文原文与中文译文逐段对照，便于跟读、检索和复习。 核心要点 信号与沉默：本集围绕“沉默，信令和苦难教育”展开，是理解后续博弈论模型和课堂案例的基础。 信息不对称：讲授重点放在参与者如何根据目标、信息和他人行为选择策略。 教育作为信号：课堂通过案例、提问或推导展示抽象模型如何落到具体决策情境。 策略性沟通：内容强调从结果反推策略条件，训练形式化的战略思维。 点击展开完整转录（70分37秒完整版，中英双语） 视频全文转录（中英双语） 以下为完整中英双语转录，已加标点。英文在前，中文在后，逐段对照。 由 Groq Whisper 转录 → M2.7 B 方案整文标点 + 分段 → M2.7 段号保留翻译 → 逐段对照。 [段 1] Okay, so today we’re going to study asymmetric information, it’s our last week, and we’re going to focus on signaling today, and I’ll spell it with one L here as a concessions to the Americans. All right, so we’re going to divide this class into two parts, and for the first part, we’re going to focus on the case where there is some verifiable, verifiable information. in the problem. Alright, so we’ll see what this means in a while, but let me just set up an example and we’ll see where that takes us. So I want to return to a game we know well by this stage, which is the Cournot game. So there’s two firms, and they’re competing in Cournot, so they’re competing in quantities. And we’ll call the firms A and B. And suppose that firm B has costs so to be more formal these are constant marginal costs are equal to Cm where m means middle or medium or something and firm A firm A also has costs but those costs could come in one of three types it could be that firm A has high costs and high costs are equal to middle costs plus a little bit. And it could be that firm A also has medium costs, and it could be that firm A has low costs. And the low costs are just the medium costs minus a little bit. ...

视频信息 标题: 耶鲁大学博弈论公开课 - 第3集 拍卖和获奖者的诅咒 BV号: BV1u54y1k74g 分集: p3 时长: 62分28秒（3748秒） 作者/来源: 耶鲁大学公开课 原始链接: B站视频 转录方式: Groq Whisper 英文转录；英文在前，中文在后逐段对照。 视频摘要 本集是耶鲁大学博弈论公开课第 3 集，主题为“拍卖和获奖者的诅咒”。课程以英文课堂讲授和互动讨论为主体，围绕拍卖机制展开，逐步引入博弈论中关于策略、收益、信息、均衡和动态推理的分析框架。本文提供英文原文与中文译文逐段对照，便于跟读、检索和复习。 核心要点 拍卖机制：本集围绕“拍卖和获奖者的诅咒”展开，是理解后续博弈论模型和课堂案例的基础。 出价策略：讲授重点放在参与者如何根据目标、信息和他人行为选择策略。 获胜者诅咒：课堂通过案例、提问或推导展示抽象模型如何落到具体决策情境。 共同价值与私人价值：内容强调从结果反推策略条件，训练形式化的战略思维。 点击展开完整转录（62分28秒完整版，中英双语） 视频全文转录（中英双语） 以下为完整中英双语转录，已加标点。英文在前，中文在后，逐段对照。 由 Groq Whisper 转录 → M2.7 B 方案整文标点 + 分段 → M2.7 段号保留翻译 → 逐段对照。 [段 1] Where have my jars of coins got to? That isn’t very far. They’ve only been along one row. All right, we’ll whiz them along this row as fast as you can. Just shake and pass now. Everybody who has had access to those jars, can you please write down on your notebook, just write down, but don’t show it to your neighbor, write down for each of those two jars how many coins you think are in the small jar and how many coins you think are in the large jar. How many coins you think are in the small jar and how many coins you think are in the large jar. Keep passing it along. So today I want to talk about auctions. And just to put this in the context of the whole class, way back on the very first day the class we talked about different types of people playing games. We talked about evil gits versus indignant angels. And then for most of the course, really until this week, we’ve been assuming that you knew who it was you were playing You knew your own payoffs but you also knew who it was you were playing against or with But the new feature of this week has been that we looking at settings where you don’t necessarily know what are the payoffs of the other people involved in the game or strategic situation. ...

视频信息 标题: 耶鲁大学博弈论公开课 - 第4集 作弊，惩罚和外包 BV号: BV1u54y1k74g 分集: p4 时长: 75分47秒（4547秒） 作者/来源: 耶鲁大学公开课 原始链接: B站视频 转录方式: Groq Whisper 英文转录；英文在前，中文在后逐段对照。 视频摘要 本集是耶鲁大学博弈论公开课第 4 集，主题为“作弊，惩罚和外包”。课程以英文课堂讲授和互动讨论为主体，围绕作弊与惩罚展开，逐步引入博弈论中关于策略、收益、信息、均衡和动态推理的分析框架。本文提供英文原文与中文译文逐段对照，便于跟读、检索和复习。 核心要点 作弊与惩罚：本集围绕“作弊，惩罚和外包”展开，是理解后续博弈论模型和课堂案例的基础。 激励约束：讲授重点放在参与者如何根据目标、信息和他人行为选择策略。 外包关系：课堂通过案例、提问或推导展示抽象模型如何落到具体决策情境。 制度设计：内容强调从结果反推策略条件，训练形式化的战略思维。 点击展开完整转录（75分47秒完整版，中英双语） 视频全文转录（中英双语） 以下为完整中英双语转录，已加标点。英文在前，中文在后，逐段对照。 由 Groq Whisper 转录 → M2.7 B 方案整文标点 + 分段 → M2.7 段号保留翻译 → 逐段对照。 [段 1] So last time, we were focusing on repeated interaction, and that’s what we’re going to continue with today. There’s lots of things we could study under repeated interaction, but the emphasis of this week is, can we attain and achieve cooperation in business or personal relationships without contracts by use of the fact that these relationships go on over time? And our central intuition, where we started from last time, was perhaps the future of a relationship can provide incentives for good behavior today. Can provide incentives for people not to cheat. So specifically, let’s think of an example, and we’ll go back to where we were last time. Specifically, suppose I have a business relationship, an ongoing business relationship with Jake. And each period I’m supposed to supply Jake with some inputs for his business, let’s say some fruit, and each period he’s supposed to provide me with some input for my business, namely vegetables. And clearly there are opportunities here in each period for us to cheat. We could cheat both on the quality of the fruit that I provide or the quantity of the fruit that I provide to Jake and he can cheat on the quantity or quality of the vegetables that he provides to me Our central intuition is perhaps what can work is, what can give us good incentives is, the idea that if Jake cooperates today, then I might cooperate tomorrow. ...

视频信息 标题: 耶鲁大学博弈论公开课 - 第5集 战争的消耗 BV号: BV1u54y1k74g 分集: p5 时长: 75分36秒（4536秒） 作者/来源: 耶鲁大学公开课 原始链接: B站视频 转录方式: Groq Whisper 英文转录；英文在前，中文在后逐段对照。 视频摘要 本集是耶鲁大学博弈论公开课第 5 集，主题为“战争的消耗”。课程以英文课堂讲授和互动讨论为主体，围绕战争消耗模型展开，逐步引入博弈论中关于策略、收益、信息、均衡和动态推理的分析框架。本文提供英文原文与中文译文逐段对照，便于跟读、检索和复习。 核心要点 战争消耗模型：本集围绕“战争的消耗”展开，是理解后续博弈论模型和课堂案例的基础。 承诺与成本：讲授重点放在参与者如何根据目标、信息和他人行为选择策略。 动态博弈：课堂通过案例、提问或推导展示抽象模型如何落到具体决策情境。 战略耐心：内容强调从结果反推策略条件，训练形式化的战略思维。 点击展开完整转录（75分36秒完整版，中英双语） 视频全文转录（中英双语） 以下为完整中英双语转录，已加标点。英文在前，中文在后，逐段对照。 由 Groq Whisper 转录 → M2.7 B 方案整文标点 + 分段 → M2.7 段号保留翻译 → 逐段对照。 [段 1] Last time we looked at how to apply our new idea, sub-game perfect equilibrium, to a whole bunch of games. And our general idea for how to solve for sub-game perfect equilibrium was as follows. We looked at each sub-game. We solved for the Nash equilibrium in the sub-game, something we learned to do long ago. And then we rolled back the payoffs. We rolled them back up the tree. and towards the end we learned something interesting I’m not going to go back to it today I just want to emphasize it we learned that strategic effects matter so in that investment game we looked at last time when you were considering whether to rent a new piece of machinery it made a very big difference whether you considered how this action would affect the actions of the other side in this case how it affects your competition and this is a very general idea very general point So just to give you a couple of more examples, when you’re designing tax systems, I mentioned this last time, when you’re designing a tax system, make some changes in the U.S. tax system, it’s not good enough to look at how people are behaving in the old tax system and just calculate in an accounting manner how much more money you’re going to raise or how much money it’s going to cost you. ...

视频信息 标题: 耶鲁大学博弈论公开课 - 第6集 信息集和子博弈完美 BV号: BV1u54y1k74g 分集: p6 时长: 75分58秒（4558秒） 作者/来源: 耶鲁大学公开课 原始链接: B站视频 转录方式: Groq Whisper 英文转录；英文在前，中文在后逐段对照。 视频摘要 本集是耶鲁大学博弈论公开课第 6 集，主题为“信息集和子博弈完美”。课程以英文课堂讲授和互动讨论为主体，围绕信息集展开，逐步引入博弈论中关于策略、收益、信息、均衡和动态推理的分析框架。本文提供英文原文与中文译文逐段对照，便于跟读、检索和复习。 核心要点 信息集：本集围绕“信息集和子博弈完美”展开，是理解后续博弈论模型和课堂案例的基础。 子博弈完美：讲授重点放在参与者如何根据目标、信息和他人行为选择策略。 逆向归纳：课堂通过案例、提问或推导展示抽象模型如何落到具体决策情境。 动态一致性：内容强调从结果反推策略条件，训练形式化的战略思维。 点击展开完整转录（75分58秒完整版，中英双语） 视频全文转录（中英双语） 以下为完整中英双语转录，已加标点。英文在前，中文在后，逐段对照。 由 Groq Whisper 转录 → M2.7 B 方案整文标点 + 分段 → M2.7 段号保留翻译 → 逐段对照。 [段 1] So today we have a lot of stuff to get through, but it’s all going to be fairly formal. We’re not going to have time to play a game today. Today’s going to be a day where we have to learn some new ideas. So the reason we need to go through some new formal ideas today is we’ve kind of exhausted what we can do with the ideas we’ve gathered so far. So just to bring us up to date where we are, in the first half of the semester, so before the midterm, we looked at simultaneous move games, and one way to think about those simultaneous move games were games where when I make my choice, I don’t know what you’ve done. And when you make your choice, you don’t know what I’ve done. And since the midterm, we’ve been looking at simple examples of sequential move games, sequential move games under perfect information, in which I typically do know what you did when I get to make my choice. And you know I’m going to know what you did when I get to make my choice. And what I want to be able to do moving forward is I want to be able to look at strategic situations that combine those two settings. I want to be able to analyze games which involve both sequential moves and simultaneous move games And in particular I want to see how we can extend the technique we been focusing on for the last few weeks which is backward induction I want us to see how we can extend the notion of backward induction to cope with games where some parts are sequential and some parts are simultaneous. ...

视频信息 标题: 耶鲁大学博弈论公开课 - 第7集 合作与结局 BV号: BV1u54y1k74g 分集: p7 时长: 75分19秒（4519秒） 作者/来源: 耶鲁大学公开课 原始链接: B站视频 转录方式: Groq Whisper 英文转录；英文在前，中文在后逐段对照。 视频摘要 本集是耶鲁大学博弈论公开课第 7 集，主题为“合作与结局”。课程以英文课堂讲授和互动讨论为主体，围绕合作与重复博弈展开，逐步引入博弈论中关于策略、收益、信息、均衡和动态推理的分析框架。本文提供英文原文与中文译文逐段对照，便于跟读、检索和复习。 核心要点 合作与重复博弈：本集围绕“合作与结局”展开，是理解后续博弈论模型和课堂案例的基础。 终局效应：讲授重点放在参与者如何根据目标、信息和他人行为选择策略。 信誉机制：课堂通过案例、提问或推导展示抽象模型如何落到具体决策情境。 长期互动：内容强调从结果反推策略条件，训练形式化的战略思维。 点击展开完整转录（75分19秒完整版，中英双语） 视频全文转录（中英双语） 以下为完整中英双语转录，已加标点。英文在前，中文在后，逐段对照。 由 Groq Whisper 转录 → M2.7 B 方案整文标点 + 分段 → M2.7 段号保留翻译 → 逐段对照。 [段 1] Okay, let’s make a start. So I hope everyone had a good break. We’re going to spend this week looking at repeated interaction. Now we already saw last time before the break that once we repeat games, once games go on for a while we can sustain behavior that’s quite interesting So for example before the break we saw that we could sustain fighting by players that were rational in a war of attrition alright and another thing we learned before the break was when we’re analyzing these potentially very long games it helps sometimes to break it break the analysis up into what we might call stage games each each period of the game and break the payoffs up into the payoffs that are associated with that stage payoffs that are associated with the past but they’re sunk they don’t really matter and payoffs that are going to come in the future from future equilibrium play so those are some ideas we going to pick up today but for the most part what we do today will be new Now whereas last time we focused on fighting for the whole of today I want to focus on the issue of cooperation In fact, for the whole of this week I want to focus on the issue of cooperation. And the question kind of behind everything this week is going to be, can repeated interaction among players both induce and sustain cooperative behavior, or if you like, good behavior. ...

视频信息 标题: 耶鲁大学博弈论公开课 - 第8集 落后的感应-国际象棋，战略和可信的威胁 BV号: BV1u54y1k74g 分集: p8 时长: 72分39秒（4359秒） 作者/来源: 耶鲁大学公开课 原始链接: B站视频 转录方式: Groq Whisper 英文转录；英文在前，中文在后逐段对照。 视频摘要 本集是耶鲁大学博弈论公开课第 8 集，主题为“落后的感应-国际象棋，战略和可信的威胁”。课程以英文课堂讲授和互动讨论为主体，围绕逆向归纳展开，逐步引入博弈论中关于策略、收益、信息、均衡和动态推理的分析框架。本文提供英文原文与中文译文逐段对照，便于跟读、检索和复习。 核心要点 逆向归纳：本集围绕“落后的感应-国际象棋，战略和可信的威胁”展开，是理解后续博弈论模型和课堂案例的基础。 国际象棋式推理：讲授重点放在参与者如何根据目标、信息和他人行为选择策略。 可信威胁：课堂通过案例、提问或推导展示抽象模型如何落到具体决策情境。 战略承诺：内容强调从结果反推策略条件，训练形式化的战略思维。 点击展开完整转录（72分39秒完整版，中英双语） 视频全文转录（中英双语） 以下为完整中英双语转录，已加标点。英文在前，中文在后，逐段对照。 由 Groq Whisper 转录 → M2.7 B 方案整文标点 + 分段 → M2.7 段号保留翻译 → 逐段对照。 [段 1] So last time we finished up by playing the game of NIMH. And you’ll remember, I hope, that the game of NIMH was a game where there was two piles of stones. We made do with lines on the board. And the winner was the person who picked up the last stone. Remember, you have to pick piles. And I want to use the game of NIMH to make a transition here. So what we pointed out about the game of NIMH game was it illustrated very nicely for us that games can have first mover advantages or they can have second mover advantages. A very small change in the game, essentially a very small change in where we started from could switch a game from a game with a first mover advantage to a game with a second mover advantage. Alright? Now today I want to make, just draw a slightly grander lesson out of that game. So not only was it the case that the game sometimes has first mover advantages and sometimes has second mover advantages. But moreover, we could tell when it had a first mover advantage and we could tell when it had a second mover advantage. Is that right? When we actually looked at the initial setup of those stones we knew immediately that a game in which player 1 is going to win or alternatively we knew immediately that a game in which player 2 is going to win Alright? ...

视频信息 标题: 耶鲁大学博弈论公开课 - 第9集 进化稳定-合作，突变，与平衡 BV号: BV1u54y1k74g 分集: p9 时长: 72分20秒（4340秒） 作者/来源: 耶鲁大学公开课 原始链接: B站视频 转录方式: Groq Whisper 英文转录；英文在前，中文在后逐段对照。 视频摘要 本集是耶鲁大学博弈论公开课第 9 集，主题为“进化稳定-合作，突变，与平衡”。课程以英文课堂讲授和互动讨论为主体，围绕进化稳定策略展开，逐步引入博弈论中关于策略、收益、信息、均衡和动态推理的分析框架。本文提供英文原文与中文译文逐段对照，便于跟读、检索和复习。 核心要点 进化稳定策略：本集围绕“进化稳定-合作，突变，与平衡”展开，是理解后续博弈论模型和课堂案例的基础。 合作与突变：讲授重点放在参与者如何根据目标、信息和他人行为选择策略。 均衡选择：课堂通过案例、提问或推导展示抽象模型如何落到具体决策情境。 演化博弈：内容强调从结果反推策略条件，训练形式化的战略思维。 点击展开完整转录（72分20秒完整版，中英双语） 视频全文转录（中英双语） 以下为完整中英双语转录，已加标点。英文在前，中文在后，逐段对照。 由 Groq Whisper 转录 → M2.7 B 方案整文标点 + 分段 → M2.7 段号保留翻译 → 逐段对照。 [段 1] So we’re going to do a new topic today. We’re going to talk about evolution. We’re going to talk about the connection between evolution and game theory. All right, now there’s going to be an extra, I already emailed you about this, there’s going to be an extra reading on this for the people who want it. I’m going to, there’s a reading packet that’s available to anybody who wants it. I emailed you all the websites where you can order that reading packet and find, and figure out where to pick it up. It’s not compulsory, you don’t have to look at that reading packet, it’s just it might help. In addition, as with last Wednesday, since some of the material here is new, I have written a handout that goes with this lecture, and that handout will appear magically this afternoon on the website All right So things today are fast Don worry There a handout that goes with it All right so why look at evolution in the context of game theory There are really two reasons. The first reason is because of the influence of game theory on biology. It turns out that in the last few decades, there’s been an enormous amount of work done in biology, in particular looking at animal behavior and using game theory to analyze that animal behavior. And just to give you a loose idea about how this works, the idea is to relate strategies with genes, or at least the phenotype of those genes, and to relate payoffs to genetic fitness. ...

视频信息 标题: 耶鲁大学博弈论公开课 - 第10集 混合战略棒球，约会和支付您的税 BV号: BV1u54y1k74g 分集: p10 时长: 73分45秒（4425秒） 作者/来源: 耶鲁大学公开课 原始链接: B站视频 转录方式: Groq Whisper 英文转录；英文在前，中文在后逐段对照。 视频摘要 本集是耶鲁大学博弈论公开课第 10 集，主题为“混合战略棒球，约会和支付您的税”。课程以英文课堂讲授和互动讨论为主体，围绕混合策略展开，逐步引入博弈论中关于策略、收益、信息、均衡和动态推理的分析框架。本文提供英文原文与中文译文逐段对照，便于跟读、检索和复习。 核心要点 混合策略：本集围绕“混合战略棒球，约会和支付您的税”展开，是理解后续博弈论模型和课堂案例的基础。 随机化：讲授重点放在参与者如何根据目标、信息和他人行为选择策略。 无差异条件：课堂通过案例、提问或推导展示抽象模型如何落到具体决策情境。 均衡计算：内容强调从结果反推策略条件，训练形式化的战略思维。 点击展开完整转录（73分45秒完整版，中英双语） 视频全文转录（中英双语） 以下为完整中英双语转录，已加标点。英文在前，中文在后，逐段对照。 由 Groq Whisper 转录 → M2.7 B 方案整文标点 + 分段 → M2.7 段号保留翻译 → 逐段对照。 [段 1] All right, so last time we did something I think substantially harder than anything we’ve done in the class so far. We looked at mixed strategies and in particular we looked at mixed strategy equilibrium. All right? And there was a big idea last time. The big idea was if a player is playing a mixed strategy in equilibrium, then every pure strategy in the mix, that’s to say every pure strategy on which they place some positive weight, must also be a best response to what the other side is doing. And then we used that trick, we used it in this game here, to help us find Nash equilibria. And the way it allowed us to find Nash equilibria is we knew that if, in this case, Venus Williams is mixing between left and right, it must be this case that her payoff is equal to that of right And we used that to find Serena mix And conversely since we knew that Serena is mixing again between little l and little r we knew she must be indifferent between little l and little r and we used that to find Venus’s mix. So I want to go back to this example just for a few moments, just to make one more point, and then we’ll move on. But we’ll still be talking about mix strategies throughout today. ...