访谈

视频信息 标题: 美国的黄昏已经到来，未来5年世界格局推演——瑞·达利欧最新访谈（双语配音） BV号: BV1c5EJ63EaH 时长: 48分56秒（2936秒） UP主: 高维实验室 原始链接: B站视频 视频摘要 本视频是桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧接受访谈，讨论美国帝国的衰落与未来五年的世界格局推演。达利欧提出历史上反复出现的"大周期"理论，包含三种秩序的演变：货币秩序、国内政治社会秩序、国际世界秩序。他指出美国当前财政严重失衡——支出7万亿美元、收入5万亿美元，债务达收入的六倍，叠加国内左右两派不可调和的分歧与国际多边规则体系的瓦解，使美国正处于类似大英帝国衰落的历史关口。他以苏伊士运河危机类比霍尔木兹海峡局势，认为若美国在中东失利，将动摇美元信用与盟友信心。在货币层面，达利欧预测法币长期贬值、黄金走强，但人民币难以取代美元成为财富储藏手段。AI是未来五年的关键变量，既可提升生产力、缓解债务，也可能加剧贫富分化与地缘冲突。达利欧建议个人通过分散投资（配置5%–15%黄金）对冲风险，而国家则需在教育、公民素养、避免战争三大基础上做出艰难改革。 核心要点 三大周期框架：达利欧认为历史存在反复出现的"大周期"，由货币债务循环、国内政治社会循环、国际世界秩序循环三种力量共同驱动，当前美国同时处于这三个周期的转折点。 债务危机预警：美国年支出约7万亿美元、收入约5万亿美元，财政赤字长期占GDP的40%，国家债务已达收入的六倍，且三分之一由外国持有，债务问题正不断恶化。 多边体系瓦解：二战后建立的多边规则秩序因缺乏执行力而崩溃，国际争端重新回到权力博弈逻辑，霍尔木兹海峡与伊朗核问题成为关键试金石。 苏伊士类比：达利欧将美国当前的中东处境比作1956年英国苏伊士运河危机，若美国被视为战败或未能达成目标，将严重削弱其全球信用与盟友体系的稳定性。 货币与黄金走势：历史上所有法币长期都走向贬值，黄金目前是央行第二大储备货币，预计未来储备货币多元化加速，但人民币因历史信用问题难以成为主要财富储藏手段。 AI的双刃效应：AI将带来三重影响——提升生产力以缓解债务问题、扩大贫富差距引发政治矛盾、以及被用于地缘对抗和金融犯罪，加剧国内国际紧张局势。 未来五年"时间扭曲"：达利欧判断未来五年将经历货币、政治、国际秩序与AI等多重力量的集中冲击，世界将变得几乎面目全非，进入高度动荡期。 应对策略与国家根基：个人应建立多元化投资组合并配置5%–15%的黄金作为对冲；国家层面则需回归教育质量、社会凝聚力与避免战争三大根本前提，否则将重复帝国衰亡的历史轨迹。 视频全文转录 口播原文，由本地 Paraformer/Groq Whisper 转录 + M2.7/LongCat 标点修复。 第1段 Ithinkeverybodyshouldbemostworriedaboutwhattheydontknowaboutthefuture.Okay,Iamworried.Yes,Iamasking.SowhatImsayingis,Ithinkweknowthatweareinincreasinglydisorientingtimeslately.IfeellikewerehavingkindofanendoftheAmericanempiremoment.Endpartpart.OurstalematewarinIran.TheStraitofHormuzisclosed.Thenuclearmaterialstillintheirhands.Americansarebeingcrushedinparts.Justthestrain.TheDonaldTrumpisputtingonAmericanalliancesandwholeworldwartoorderorwhateverremains.Inpart,itsthesensethatourbiggestrival,China,issortofpatientlybidingtheirtime,watchingusflailaround,waitingforustojustcollapse.Myguess,thisweekhasbeenonthisbeatforawhilenow,andhehasagrandtheoryofhistorythatpredictsthatAmericaisheadedforafall.HeskindofanunlikelyCassandra.RayDaliobuiltoneoftheworldslargesthedgefunds,Bridgewater,fromthegroundup.Butthesedays,hemostlywantstotalkaboutourimperialdecadesandwhethertheresanythingwecandotopulltheAmericanempirebackfromthebrink.RayDalio,welcometoInterestingTimes.Thankyou.Itsinterestingtobeininterestingtimes.Sopeoplesay,youresomeonewhospentyourcareermakingbets,andasubstantialnumberofthemhavepaidoffoverthelastfewdecades.Andlately,youvebeenarguingthattheUnitedStatesofAmericaismaybenotsuchagoodbetatthemoment.SoifsomeoneislookingatAmericarightnow,tryingtodecide,letssaywhethertobetontheAmericanempireasadominantforceinthetwenty-firstcentury,whatisthebigforcesorfactorsthattheyshouldbelookingat?Yeah,Icorrectthat.ImnotsayingthatAmericaisabadbetoragoodbet.Imjustdescribingwhatsgoingon.AndwhatIvelearnedthroughmyroughlyfiftyyearsofinvestingisthatmanythingsthatareimportantthathappenedtome,didnthappeninmylifetimebefore,buthappenedmanytimesinhistory.AndsoIlearnedtostudythelastrealmoffivehundredyearsofhistorytofindwhatcausedtherisesanddeclinesofreservecurrencies,theirempires,andsoon.Andyouseeapatternoverandoveragain.Andthereissuchathingasabigcycle.Andthebigcyclestartswhenthereareneworders.Therearethreetypesoforders.Theresamonetaryorder.Thereisadomesticpoliticalorder,andthereisaninternationalworldorder.Andsothesearethreebigforcesthatevolve.Soonthefirstforce,aswelookatthatmonetaryorder,theresadebtcycle.Okay,whendebtsriserelativetoincomes,anddebtservicepaymentsriserelativetoincomes,forcountries,foremperors,foranybodythatsqueezesoutspending,thatsaproblem.Soforexample,theUnitedStatesnowspendsseventrilliondollars,aboutseventrilliondollars.Ittakesinaboutfivetrilliondollars.Soitspendsfortypercentmorethanittakesin.Itsbeenrunningthosedeficitsforawhile.Soithasadebtthatsaboutsixtimesitsincome.Theamountthattakesit.Andyoucanseethroughouthistorythatthatproducesproblems.Anditsaverysimplething.Thedebtsforacountryworkthesameasadebtforanindividualoracompany.Itexceptsthatthegovernmentcanprintmoney,whichiswhichisanimportantdifferentimportantdifference.Okay,justspeakingpersonally.AndsoIcantprintmoneytopaymymortgage.What?Butwhatthatdoesisitalsodevaluesmoney.Okay.Sothatsthemechanic.Thatswhythereisalong-termdebtcycleaswellasshort-termdebtcycle,andmoneycyclesandeconomiccyclesthattakeusfromonerecessiontooverheatingtoanotherrecession.Relatedtothatisthedomesticpoliticalandsocialcyclethatrelatestothemoneycycle.Andwhenyouhaveverylargewealthandvaluesdifferences,biggapsinthosemeaningsbetweenrichandpoor,betweenrichandpoor,andthosewithdifferentvalues.Andyougettothepointwherethereareirreconcilabledifferences,thenyouhavepoliticalconflictsthataresuchthatthesystemisatrisk.Okay.Ithinkwehavethefirstcycle,thedebtcycle,goingon.Ithinkwehavethesecondcycle,thepoliticalleftandright,goingon.Andtherearereallyirreconcilabledifferences.Wecangetintothose.Andthenhowtoseeinternational?Andthenyoutoo,are,shouldallisthesamething.Okay,internationally,thereisalways,followingawar,therewasadominantpower,andthedominantpowercreatesthenewworldorder.Okay,thisordermeansthesystem.Andsothatbeganin1945forus,theUnitedStateswasthedominantpowerthatestablishedthatsystem.Thatsokay.Anditestablishedthesystem,whichwaslargelymodeledaftertheUnitedStatessystem,inthatitwasmeanttoberepresentative.TheUnitedNations,forexample,thiswasthemostmultilateralworldorder,theycallit.Andsoalldifferentcountrieswouldoperate,andtherewassupposedtobearule-basedsystem.Andbuttheproblemwiththatisthatwithoutenforcement,itsnotgoingtobeaneffectivesystem.Itwasanidealisticsystem.Itwasabeautifulsystemwhileitlasted,butwenolongerhaveamultilateralrule-basedsystem.Wehavewhatexistedpriorin1945throughmostofhistory.Andnowyouregoingtohavegeopoliticaldisagreements,suchasevenwhatisexistingwithIran?Howarethosedisagreementsresolved?YoudonttakeittotheWorldCourtandgetaverdictandgetitenforced.Itsthepoweroftherule,right?Butjustonthatpoint,evenattheheightofwhatwethinkofastherules-basedinternationalorder,first,formostofthathistory,theUSwasinconflictwiththeSovietUnion.EvenaftertherewasanongoingColdWar.Sotherewasarelativelynarrowwindowofjustthatsystemexistingindependentofgreatpowerconflict.Andeventhen,right,Americanpowerwasintheend,sortofthedecisive,andevenso,right,becausetheSovietsdidnothaverealpower.Theyappreciatedpower,buttheendofWorldWar,too.TheUnitedStateshad80percentoftheworldsgold.IthadhalftheworldsGDP,anditalsohadthedominantmilitarypower.Soasaresult,itcouldgivethemoney,andtheywhoreceivedthemoneyappreciatedthemoney,buttheyhadtheSovietsystem,whichwasaverysolidpartandfinanciallyalmostashock,certainlysignificantand…Sothemilitarybalanceofpowerwasreal,thefinancialbalanceofpower.JustputAmericaincharge,[vestry?]…Fortunately,whentherewasmutuallyassureddestruction,wedidntusethatmilitarypower,though.IrememberwhentheCubamissilecrisis.Asakid,Iwatched,andwedidntknowwhethertherewouldbeonenewbuyerexchange,buttheynevercametothat.Andthen…sotheSovietUnioncollapsed.Andthenwhatroledojustcontingenteventsplayinthiskindofgeopoliticalview?Well,onthestreet,alltheeventsthatcomealong,Iguessthequestionis:dotheyleadtoadispute?Andhowwasthedisputeresolvedinaworldwheretheresnotthecourtsystemthatyougototoresolveiteitherdomesticallyorinternationally.Soforexample,whatshappeningintheMiddleEast,particularlywhatshappeningwithIran?Theresaconflict.Andthentheresawar,asthereis,becausetheresnootherresolution.Andwhattheworldislookingatrightnowis:willthismorebeabletobeonebytheUnitedStates?Orwillitbelost?Andwhenwelookatthat,itwillbemeasuredinalmostblackandwhiteterms:whowillcontroltheStraitofHormuz,andwhowillcontrolthenuclearmaterials.WilltheUnitedStateswinawar?Andweshouldalsorecognizethattherearealignmentshere,sothatChinaandRussiaand…tendtobemoresupportiveofeachother,justastherearesupportsontheotherside,right?Andthat,again,justsortofemphasizeswhatsdistinctiveaboutthismomentrelativetothepastfewdecades,certainlyright.Itsthestrengthofthealignmentontheotherside.Like,whatareyou?Itsarelativestrength,right?Andthebreakdownofthat…Inaddition,therearebigdebtorrelationshipsthatenterintoit.Forexample,whentheUnitedStatesrunslargedeficits,ithastoborrowmoney.Sothatisveryriskyduringperiodsofconflict.Andsoisinterdependence.Inotherwords,inthisworldofgreaterrisk,youhavetohaveself-sufficiency,becausehistoryhastaughtusthatyoucanbecutoff,andeithersidecanbecutoff.Yeah,ImjustImveryinterestedinhowthepiecesfittogether,right.SosupposetheendgameinIranisthatweareperceivedtohavelostthewar,orattheveryleast,failedinourobjectives.MaybetheStraitofHormuzisopen,buttheIranianregimeisstillinpower.AndtheresjustaperceptionthatAmericatried,youknow,triedthisthing,anditdidntwork.Youthinkthat?Thatthenbleedsbackintopeoplesperceptionsof:Arewetrustworthytopayourdebt?IwasjustthroughAsia.IjustspentaboutamonthinAsiagoingandmeetingdifferentleadersandothers.嗯，ithasaverybigimplication,verymuchlikeumtheimplicationthatumhappenwhentheBritishlosttheSuezCanalbecauseEgypttookcontrolofthecanal.AndthatwasperceivedtodayastheendoftheBritishEmpire.Inotherwords,verysignificant,right.Andthiswasinthe1950s,yeah.Andthatsalsowhentherewasnotawillingnesstoholdtheline.Theydidnt.Andsowhatishappeningnowindifferentcountriesisthequestionof:WilltheUnitedStatesdefenditsallies,oristheUnitedStatesnotinapositiontodefendusbecausethepopulationdoesnotwanttofightawarthatwaslong?Sothewarhastobequickandnotexpensiveandpopular,popular,right,whichourwarsdonttendtobe.ThesekikesjustjusttostayitwithwiththeSuezanalogyjustforaminute,though,becauseIthinkitsinteresting.Andweveheardalotofpeopleofferthatanalogy.SothiswasacasewhereBritainandtheFrenchandtheIsraelisbasicallytriedtoretaketheSuezCanalafteritwasnationalizedbyEgypt.Soobviously,theresparallelstoIran.Youhaveachokepointinglobaltrade.YouhaveaconflictoveritbetweenWesternpowersandtheoriginalpower.Butinthatcase,thekeyelementofSuez,itseemstome,wasthatEisenhowerandtheUnitedStatesbasicallytoldtheBritish,No,yourenotgoingtodothat,right?AndsopartofthecrisisandconfidencefortheBritishEmpireandtheBritishpound—everythingelsewasconnectedtothisrealizationthat,youknow,thisis,asyousaidbefore,likeitsthepost-WWIIorderandAmericasincharge.DoyouneedthattohappenwithChina?Right?Doyouneedtohaveasimilarmoment,哎，forpeopletoreallyloseconfidenceinAmerica?Howmuchdoyouneedanewhegemontoemerge?IguessitswhatImasking:forpeopletoabandontheoldone.Bytheway,IdontthinkChinawillendupbeingtheclassichegemon,whichwecangetinto—information—inthatinafewminutes.But啊whatIwouldsayis啊，therewasthecombinationoftheBritishdebtandthefactthatitclearlylostpower—thedeclinebeganbeforethis—andtherewasarecognitionthattheUnitedStateswasinafinanciallybetterposition,right,aswellasaworldpower,sobeinmyopinion.Sohowdoesthat?Butthen,howdoesit—ifthereisvalueinthathegemony,whatistheequivalent?Now,ifpeopledecidetheUSisnolongerastrustworthyaswethought,itslesslikelytopayoffitsdebts,andsomeone[stepsin].AndmaybethisgoestoyourpointaboutChinaandwhetherthereisanewhegemon.嗯，dopeoplegotoChina,ordopeopleabandonthedollarasareservecurrency?Wheredoesthemoneygo?Isitpeoplelose[confidence]?Difficulttoknow.AndIllgiveyoumythoughtsonthat.ButIalsowanttosaythisistypicalofeverycycle.SowhentheBritishtookoverfromtheDutch,Ithappenedinthesameway.Right?Okay,theBritishwerefinanciallystrong,capablystrong.Theylost,anditcausedtheshiftfromtheDutchempire,whichhadthereservecurrencyatthetime,inthedebt.Andsoitshappenedrepeatedlythesameway.Soyoudontneedtheparticularsof,letssay,presidents,andno,butyouneedasuccessorpower.ThatswhatIm,thatswhatImaskingabout.ThenIthinkwhathappensis,andansweredyourquestionofwherethemoneygoesorwherethewealthis.Okay,youcouldbeadominantpower.Youcouldstillhaveadominantpower,andyoucouldstillhavefinancialproblems,likethebreakdownofthemonetarysystemin1971.Okay.InourUnitedStates,theywerestilladominantpowerin1971yettoomuchdebt,andyoucouldntbackupyourpromisetodelivergold.Andyouhadabreakdownofthemonetarysystem.IhavedirectedtheSecretaryoftheTreasurytosuspendtemporarilytheconvertibilityofthedollar,orotherreserveassets,exceptinamountsandconditionsdeterminedtobeintheinterestofmonetarystability.Andwehadtheseventiesinstagflation.Okay,youcouldstillhavethat.Soyoucanhaveacrisis,thatisasituationwhereyouhaveacrisis.Youdonthaveasuccessorpoweryet,right?Theydidnttakeoverintheseventies.Thatswejustwentthroughareallybadtenyears.Youstillhavelovelypricerises.Andwhatthatmeansisholdingthebondsisnotagoodstoreholdofwealth.So,money,toansweryourquestion,therearetwopurposesofmoney.Somediumofexchangeandastoreholdofwealth.Ithinkthatyouresayingrightnow,Chinascurrencyincreasinglybecomesamediumofexchangeforanumberofreasons.ButIverymuchdoubtthatChinawill,orChinesedebt,orwhateverwillbeaseriousstoreholdofwealthbecauseoftheirhistoryofnotprotectingwealth.AndIdontthinkanyofthefiatcurrencieswillbeeffectivestoreholdsofwealth.Asay,afiatcurrency,justforourlisteners,isjustacurrencyissuedbyanationsstatethatisntbackedingoldoranythingelse,wheretheycanprintmoney.Sowhenwelookathistory,weseethatinallsuchperiods,allthefiatcurrenciesgodown.Okay.Andgoldgoesup.Goldrightnowisthesecondlargestreservecurrencyofcentralbanks.Inotherwords,thedollarsfirst,thentheresgold.Thenthereistheeuro,thenthereisyen.SowhyIthinkthequestionis,whatismoneyasastoreholdofwealth,right?Butgoldnowhasbeentheleadingcandidateforthat,outofdefault,becauseitsbeenthewinneroverdebt.Soalternativestothedollarbecomemoreattractive.Withouttherebeingthisshifttojustyou.WerejustbuyingChinesedebtinstead.Thatwouldbethepredictionhow.SothenforAmerica,Ithink,fromtransactionspointofview,thewayitworkstraditionallyis,ascountriesstarttotransactinacurrency,theywillbuildreservesinthatcurrency.Itsliketheircashaccountsothattheyexpectthemwhentheypayforthosethings.Theyjustbought.Theyhaveenoughcashonhandtodothat.SoIwouldexpectthat.Thatwouldincreasethereserves.Theissueofsavinginthatdeadisisaproblem.Soweareinanewworldofsayingwhatisasafestoreholdofwealth,right?HowdoesthisthenfortheaverageAmerican,sortoflookingatyourcycleandsaying,okay,yeah,thishashappenedbefore,itshappeningagain.Weregoingthroughaperiodwhenwespentbeyondourmeans.Andtheresgoingtobeacorrection.Whatdoyouexpectthatcorrectiontolooklike?Theresthenineteenseventies,whichisaperiodofinflationandslowgrowth,misinflation,right?TherestheGreatDepressionmodel,whichisafinancialcrashandcrisisthatleadstopovertyanddeflation.Whichoneshouldwebemostworriedaboutinthisenvironment?Ithinkeverybodyshouldbemostworriedaboutwhattheydontknowaboutthefuture.Okay,Iamworriedaboutthat.ThatswhyIm,thatswhyImaskingyoutotellmewhatwedonotknow.Alotaboutwhattheworldwilllooklikeinthreetofiveyears.Whatwedontknowismuchgreaterthananythingweknow.Ithinkweknowthatweareinincreasinglydisorderlytimes,andthesearethegreaterrisks.AndsowhatdoIthinktheanswershouldbe?Ithinkthattheanswershouldbetoknowhowtohaveawell-diversifiedportfoliothatislargelybalancedforthesekindsofuncertainties.Iwouldsayoneelementtogiveasimplicity,ifyouresayingwhatismytypicalportfolio?Theresstocks,theresbonds.Thereisinvestmentsinothercountries.Diversificationisgood.Imnotgoingtobeabletogothroughallthethingsabouthowtostructurethat,butIthinkanyportfolioshouldhavebetweenfiveandfifteenpercentingold.Becausewhenyougetintothereallybadtimesfortherestofit,thatiswhengolddoesbest.Okay.Sowhateveris,itsoneofthereasonsitsbeensuchagreatinvestmentinasenseoverthelastfewyearsbecausetheresamovementinthatdirection.SoIwouldsaybalance,knowhowtohavegooddiversificationasahedgeagainsttheotherstuff.Butso,justasIdoasaninvestormyself,Idowanttheinvestmentadvice,butasapundit,whateverIam,right,whostryingtodescribeoranticipatereality,evenacceptingthatwecantknowforsure,iftherearetheselessonsfromhistory,iftherearethesesortofcyclesthatrepeat,andwereheadedforakindof,wecancallitabottomingout,wecancallitareset.Maybewebouncebackfromit.Imjusttryingtogetasenseofwhatyouthinklifelookslikeatthebottomofthecycleandwhetheritisasortofstagnationandpersistentunhappiness,orisitmorelikecrisisandyouknow,clashesinthestreetskindofthing.Becausetheseventies,thethirties,mydifferentdifferentexample.Thatsyou.Illgiveyoumyconcerns.Ithinkwehavethesebigissues:themoneyissue,thepoliticalandsocialissuedomestically,andtheinternationalgeopoliticalissue.IthinkasIlookattheclock…Weregoingtocomeintothemid-termelections.AndIthinkthatprobablytheRepublicanswilllosetheHouse.AndIthinkfromthatpointon,youregoingtoseeanintensification,apoliticalconflict—politicalandsocialconflict—thatwilltakeplaceinthatperiod,particularlybetweenthatelectionandthepresidentialelection.Andtheyear2028.Iworrythatthosecanbeirreconcilabledifferences.Idontknowhowtheywillgodown.Idontknowhowtherespectforrulesandlawandorderandwhateverwillkeeplawinorder.Iamconcernedabout,butImnotpredictingbroader-basedviolence.Youcouldhavebroader-basedviolence.TherearemoregunsintheUnitedStates,andpeople.SoImnotpredicting,andImnotmettocomplete.Ithought,ifImay,Iveseenthepossibilities.Ithinkthateverybodyaroundthemisgoingtolookatthesethingsandjudgeforthemselves.Mygeneralreactionisthatweareenteringaperiodofgreaterdisorder.Toansweryourquestion,Ithinkgreaterrisk.AndImexited,anditisfollowingthatarc.AndImnow.Wetalkwithwords,butIplotthingsonchartsintermsofwhatthepatternsare.Thatthesethingsarefollowingthosekindsofpatterns.Soforthatreason,Ithinkyouaskedmethequestion,Imgivenyoumyanswer.AndIthinkforthosereasonsofgooddiversificationandsupport,andtobealertedtothose.Tellmeme,me,howyouthinkthedebtpictureandthepoliticalandsocialpictureinteract,becauseitseemslike,ifyouaskpeopleout,theyredividedaboutrightnow,theydontsayinterestpaymentsonthenationaldebt,right?Andtheyknowtheyhaveamuchlongerlistofthingstheyredividedabout.AndImjustcurioushowyouthinkcountriesgoup.Theycrowdoutotherformsofinvestment.Whatdoestheeconomicforcethatinteractswithsocial?Dividedaboutrightnow?Theyredividedaboutwhat?Nowwhatbody?Andwhogetsit?Okay.Sowhichisverymuchrelatedtothedeficit.Iwrotemymostrecentbooktoexplainhowitworkswiththirty-fiveexamples.Howcountriesgobroke.AndIvebeenspeakingtotoplevelsofboththeDemocrat,Republicanparty,andeverybodyagreesonthosemechanics.Yes.AndthenwhenIgodown,IsayyouvegottogettothreepercentofGDPdeficitthroughsomemixofraisingtaxes,cuttingspending,andcontrollinginterestrates.ThatasIhavetodomechanicallyalso.Butbutandtheyrenotready.Youdontunderstand.Andinorderforustobeelected,wehavetomakeatleastoneoftwopromises:Iwillnotraiseyourtaxes,andIwillnotcutyourbenefits.Okay.Sowhatthecountrydecidesis,youknow,letssay,themulti-billionaireclassandthosewhoarenot—thosewhoarestrugglingfinancially,theleftandtheright,andpopulism,andsoon.Sowhathasamoney-incomponent?Sodeficitsandthemoneypartisaverybigcut.Socialandwelfare.Butso,whenyouretalkingtopoliticiansabout,andtheygiveyouthisspeechabouthowwecantraisetaxes.Andwecantcutspending,right?Ithinkthefollow-upthattheywouldsayistheexperienceofthatleadstoopportunityorequality,right?Um,thosewhorelyonMedicareandSocialSecuritythinkthisistheguaranteeofequality.Peoplewhorelyonnotaxestobuildabusinessthinkthisistheguaranteeofopportunity.SoifyouaretryingtosellunityoncuttingdeficitstothreepercentofGDP,whatdoyoutellthem?Youresavingthemfromafinancialcrisis?Okay.Okay,whathappensinthefinancialcrisisintheUS?Whatdoesthatlooklike?Thefinancialcrisiswillmean,right,um,thecapacitytospendwillbeverylimited.Anotherword,youcanttaxit,right?Militaryexpensesandsocialexpensesandsoon.Soyoullbeveryconstrained,andyoullhave,um,becausethedemandwontmeetupwiththesupply,youllhaveinterestratesgoingup,whichwillcurtailborrowing,willhurtmarkets,andsoon.Andthatwillleadtothispre-2008,uh,tryingtobalancethatbyalsoprintingthemoney,whichwillalsodevaluethemoneyandcreateastagflationkindofenvironment.Okay,soitsoundslike,intheworstcase,acombinationofthe2008financialcrisis,yieldingthatthe1970sstylestagflation.Imsorry,Imtryingtounderstandandnowon.Itrytorate,like,becausejusttoputitinperspectiveforyou,Iamforty-sixyearsold,andIvelivedmyentirelifeintheshadowofthenarrationthattheUSdeficitbeingunsustainable.ThefirstpresidentialelectionIreallyrememberisRossPerotscampaignin1992,whichwasruninpartonthosethemes.Thedollarsdoomthroughthefloor,whosefaultisthat?ButlikeDemocrats,notRepublicans,notherupthere.Theresanextra-terrestrialdoingthistous.Iguessthatforeverybodysays,Itakeresponsibility,andeverybodysomewherehastotakeresponsibilityforthis,butlikealotofAmericans,thatmeansthatItendtodoubtthedeficitargument.ThefirsttimeIfeellikedeficitsandoverspendingbecameareallybigissueinpeoplespocketbookssincethe1990swasthewayofinflationinthefirstcoupleyearsoftheBidenadministration.SoIjustthinkitsusefulformeandforlistenerstounderstandconcretelywhythe2030saredifferentfromthelasttwentyyearswhenwevealsohadthesedeficits,thankyouforyourcorrections.Okay,andIfeelcompelledtogiveyouthatanswer.Okay,soitisliketheplaquebuildingup.Sostartlikeyouresaying,um,Ihaventhadaheartattackyet.Okay?Okay,Imsaying,okay,youhaventhadaheartattackyet.Imsayingyouhaventhadaheartattackyet,butcanIshowyoutheMRIwheretheplaqueisbuildingupinyoursystem?AndcanyouunderstandwhatImsayingabouthowthatplaquemeansyouwillhaveaheartattackifthatplaquethenstartstogetthat?Canyouunderstandthat?Canyouunderstandwherethenumbersareandwhereyouare?Look.Itsyourlife.Itsyourchoices,okay?Andaskyourself:Isthatright?Oristhatyet?Okay,youknowwhatyouneedtodoforyourownwell-being?So,inyourstory,itsoundslikeifyoucombinethatdiagnosiswithyoursense—andmysenseofhowtheAmericanpoliticalsystemcurrentlyworks—thatyouregoingtogetatleastamildversionoftheheartattackbeforeteenyears.Areyouattheoutset?YouwerentreallybettingagainstAmericainspiteof,like,mypodcastsframing?Areyouoptimisticthatwecouldhave?Iguessyoucouldcallitaminorheartattackandrecover.Ithinkweregoingtocomeintoaperiodofgreaterdisorderastheresaconfluencebetweenthemonetarypart,thepartdomesticsocialandpoliticalpartwherethereareirreconcilabledifferences,andtheinternationalworldorderpart.AndIwouldsay,then,Ishouldbringdisorderfactors.Oneofthemisactsofnaturethroughouthistory—pandemics,droughts,floods,andpandemics.Okay?Andifyoutakewhatmostpeoplethinkaboutwhatshappeningtoclimate,itsnotamovementtowardimprovement.Itsamovementtowardworsening.Andnow,technologyandAI.AndIthinkthatwehavetotalkabouttechnologyandAIasitentersintothispicturebecauseitplaysarole,andthewayitplaystherole—Ithinkthreeways.Itcanbeatremendousproductivity-enhancingresultthatcanhelptomitigatemaybealotofthedebtproblems,andsoon.Soforittomeetthem,perhapswecangetintothis.Idontthinkitsgoingtocomeupacrosswiththatspeed,andsoon.Well,thatsjust…just…Icanhearthisfromme.Ithinkpeoplewillsaythatinthebestcase,AI,ifitjustaddsapercenttoGDPgrowth,apercenttoproductivitygrowth,thatitreducesyouroriginalproblems.Thatsright.Thatsthought.Itseasiertobear,yeah.ThoughtIsaid,yeah,becauseitcanproducetheincomes,letssay,andtheincomescanhelpservicepaymentsandalike.Okay.SoIjustwanttosaythatsoneofthethreeeffectsofAI.ThesecondeffectofAIisnowcreatingenormouswealthgaps.Okay,thosewhoarethebeneficiariesof…butwereapproachingwhowillbethefirsttrillionaire.Okay,thewealthgapthinghasincreasedatgreatamounts,anditwillreplacealotofjobs.Andsothatsnumbertwoasafactor,right?Sothosegapsareanissue.Howeverweeverdealwiththem,theywillhavetobedealtwith.Andthatsgoingtobecomeprobablyapoliticalquestion,butthatsanissue.Andthennumberthreeis:Thetechnologiesthemselvescanbeusedforharm.Alotofpower—itcanbeusedbyothercountries.Itcanbeusedbythosewhowanttoinflictharm.Itcouldbeusedbythosewhowanttostealmoney.Itcanbeusedforharm,right?Andinyourpattern,inyourcycles,right?Youcanseeitasinthatlastsense:itincreasesgeopoliticaltensions,potentiallyitheightenswardynamics.Itincreasesdomestictension.Butitcouldbephysicaltensionsatright.Itcanproducetheproductivity.So,butifit,butifithassomeofthebadeffects,wellprobablyhavesomeofthegoodeffectstoo,right?Like,andhowthatbalanceis.Yeah,youknow,andwewontknowwhatitislikeinthefuture,becauseitstooarehumancapacitytoanticipatewhatitllbelikeinthreetofiveyears.SoIthinkthatweforalltheseforces,theseforces,andIthinkoverthenextfiveyears,itllbelikegoingthroughatimewarp.Okay,itllbehugechangesoverthenextfiveyearsinalloftheseforcescomingtogether.Andattheothersideofthat,thatitllalmostunrecognizable,willbeverydifferent.Itllbeaperiodofgreatageovergreatturbulence,um,andthenbacktohow,okay.Sowhatisonesupposedtodo,knowingthatoneisnotgoingtoknowwhatitsgoingtobelike?Thatsmyownapproachtothis.AndIrecommend,thisiswhatbalancepositionsmyrepublicansthough,Ifeellikelisteningtothataccount,maybemakesthemsaywhyitlllie.Hewantsustocutdeficitstothreepercent,buthealsothinksweregoingthroughafive-yeartimewarp,unlikeanythinginhumanhistory.SomaybewelljustwaitandseewhattheworldlookslikeinfiveyearsbeforewepainfullyrestructureMedicareandSocialSecurity.Idontthinktheyregoingtothinkaboutwereatradevalueofwono.Isaytheyregoingtothinkabout,like,whatdoestheballotboxthen?Yes,no,no,absolutely.Butthereare,youknow,IvetalkedtopeopleinWashington,inDC,whohavethereisalwayslegitimateconcernaboutthedeficit,andthereareactualattemptstodosomethingaboutit.IguesswhatIminterestedinisyouraccountoftheriseandfallofempires,Spanishempire,Britishempire,theDutchandminiempireandsoon.Youdonthavethesecasestudiesofagreatpowergoingthroughthiscycle,hittingwhatyouthinkofasthebottomandthenbouncingbackandsortofhavinganotherrun?Ordoyou?BecausethatsImean,look,asAmericans,right?Thatsourgoal.Ifsomeonebuysintoyournarrative,theywouldsay,okay,buthistoryisntdeterminedaswecanmakechoices,andwecanhaveourselvesanothercycle,right?Yes.AndIthinkthatspossible,buthereswhattheywhathastohappen.Ithinkandhistorywouldsayyes,thatsthecycle.Yeah,noandnorepublic.Okay.Andhetalkedaboutthedemocracyandtheproblemswiththedemocracy,becausethepeopledontvoteforwhatisgoodforthemandstrength.SixtypercentoftheAmericanpeoplehavebelowasixth-gradereadinglevel,andtheresaproblemwithproductivityandsoon,andtheyvoteandtheydeterminealot.Andsothequestionishowinademocracycanthathappen?Andyouknow,hisviewisthatswhenyouhave,ideally,thebenevolentdespot,somebodywhoisgoingtotakecontrol,bestronganddoforthecountry,inasense,bringpeopletogether.However,Thathappens.Whatyouneedisastrongleaderofthemiddle,whorecognizesessentiallythatthepartnershipandtheconflictisgoingtobeaproblem,buthasthestrengthtogetpeopleandeverythingworkinginawaythatitneedstowork.Sothattherecanbeadebtrestructuringofsomeform.Therecanbeanimprovementinoureducationsystem.Therecanbethestructuralchangesininefficiency.Itsdifficulttorunabigcompany.Imaginewhatitsliketorunthiscountry,andtorunitwell.Soalothasto,youhavetohavearemarkablepersonwithgreatstrength,andyouhavetohavestrongleadershipthatisthenfollowedratherthansubvertedbyeitherofthosesides.SoyourelookingfortheFranklinRoseof,maybetheoriginalfigure,ofthisparticularcrisis,ifanythingnowmorethanithaseverbeen,becausewerefurther,werefurtherdown.Wehavetheright.Werethere.Everybodysgotanopinion.Youdonthaveto,thatistolead.Imean,Ivebeen.Canyouimagine?Andeverybodys,onceyouknow.Sothequestionis:canyouleanpeopledownthemiddle,bringpeopletogether,andgetthemtododifficultthings,right?Butwerealso,Imean,thisissomethingthatIthinkaboutwiththesedebates.Werealsoextremelyrich,liketheUnitedStatesismuchricherthanitwaseveninthe1980s.ItscertainlymuchricherthanitwasduringtheGreatDepression,right?Andthat,youknow,asmuchaspeoplefeelthebiteofinflationorfuel,youknow,thestruggleofaspikeintheunemploymentrate,thatitselfisakindofstabilizer.Andsoitseemslikeyoucanalsoseescenarios.Ithink,IthinkyoutaketheexampleofJapan.Um,Japanisacountry.Um,itscarriedatremendousdebtburdenforalong,longtime.Ithasdoneso.Iwouldntsayitsdonesowithgreatsuccess.Ithasbecomelesseconomicallydynamic.Itsmorestagnant.Itsnotasitwasinthe1990s,whenpeopleweretalkingaboutJapantakingovertheworld.Um,butitalsohasthiskindof,youknow,wealthyoldersocietystability.Doyouthinkthatsaphilosophicalscenarioforthefuture?Ithinkyouaskedtwoquestions,andIwanttotreatthem.Yeah.Um,actually,Iknowtheyrerelated.Um,thefirstisabouttheseparationoflivingstandardsthathavebeenrising.Thathasbeentruethroughallhistory.Soallofthesetimes,butwentbeforeWorldWarTwo,thathasbeentrue.Andthebigissueishowpeopledealwitheachother,meaningthatatthepeakofdebt,theempireswerericherthaneverbefore.We,yes,orifyoutakepercapita,onmanymeasures,lifeexpectancy,anymeasuresofwell-being.Andyoudoachartforreallyfromthe1400sintheDarkAges,itwasrelativelyflat.Andsoateverymomentintime,we,asaworld,asasociety,havebeenricherthanbefore,makingyourpoint.Okay,thatdidntpreventWorldWarTwo.Didntpreventthedebtproblems.Didntpreventanyofthosethings,becausethemostimportantthingishowpeopledealwitheachother.Cantheytogetherdealwiththoseproblems?Andbecauserealistically,sowhatifwehadtenpercentdeclineinourlivingstandards,aspartofahealthyadjustment?Imalmostfinishedon,butIwanttogetthisout.So,sothat,thatisthefirstthing—doesntalleviatethedeepproblem,doesntalleviatethefightingforwhocontrols.Andsothatsme.Now,justwhenthatIdidntinterruptyou,pleasedont—okay,Illfinishamanualreply.So—andontheJapanesecase,ordoyouwantmetoanswerthisoneandthengotothejob?Just—justwait,waitontheJapanese.Justonequestiononthat.Dontyouthinkthoughthatthereissome?Igiveyou—takethethirties,theseventies,andtheaftermathofthefinancialcrisisintwothousandandeight.Asweknow,eachaperiodofsomekindofeconomiccrisis,itwasbetter,right?Thethirties,thethirtieswereworsethantheseventies.Andtheseventieswereworsethanthetwothousandandtens.Somaybethingshavestabilizedalittle,alittlebitbecausewevegottenricher.Yeah,ifyouwouldlookatpercapitaincome,lifeexpectancy,anymeasuresofstandardoflivingandwhateveritis,andyouweretosee.Buteven—Imjustsayingeventhefightingrightwasnotasbadintheseventiesasitwasntinthethirties.ThatsallImsaying,Iwouldntreadtoomuchintothat.Okay,okay.Inotherwords,Iwouldsaythisismuchmorelikethethirties.Okay,okay.Foravarietyofreasonshavingtodowiththemeasures,ifyouweretosaytheseverityofthedebt,theseverityoftheinternalconflict.Imean,IlivedthroughtheseandI—so—sosinging,wewereworseoffintheseventies.Ourconflicts,ourdebtisworseoff.Thatstrue.Okay.AndtheUnitedStatesdominanceintheworld,thewar,andtheconflictisworse.Okay,okay.SoIwouldsaythatsobjectivelythecase.Imnottryingtomakeabadcase.Imjusttryingtobeanalytical—just,andmyjobistogetitcorrect.So,sohowabout,howaboutourJapanesefuture?CouldwehaveaJapanesefuture?TheJapanesesituationis—twomain—thanks,veryinteresting.TheJapanesedebtisaninternaldebt.Inthatparticularcase,thewayitwasdealtwithisthatthecentralbankprintedalotofmoneyandbroughtthedebt.Okay,thatshowtheydidit.Andasaresultofthat,theJapaneseyendeclined.Andsotheyhadatremendousappreciationinthevalueofthewealthbecauseofthedepreciationinthevalueofthemoneyandthedebt.Soyes,wecanseesomethinghappeninglikethat.Okay,butwealsohaveaforeignone.Thirdofourdebtisheldbyforeigners.Okay.Soitsadifferentthing.Andso—andweasacountry,youknow,allmoneyowedtobythecountry.So—butyes,andifyouthinkthatthatsagoodoutcome.No,IknowwhatIthink—itsthedeclineoftheBritishempire.IcouldhavethedeclineastheBritishempire—thesamesortofthing.No,Idontthinkitsagoodoutcome.IminterestedinitbecauseinthecaseofJapan,itssortofasustainablestagnationratherthancrisisandcollapse.ButIthinkwhereIwouldagreewithyouisthatthereare,forvariousreasonsthatarebeyondthescopeofthisconversation,JapanesesocietyseemsmorelikelytoacceptadererciationinlivingstandardsthanAmericansociety.Andinthatsense,itprobablyisntamodel.Letmeaskyoualastquestionintheformofacommentaboutmyownoptimismthatyoucanrespondto,right,whichisthatImentionedearlieraboutdebt.Ivelivedmyentirelifeinaworldofpeopleworryingaboutdeficitsanddeficitspending.AndIthinkitiscompletelyreasonabletosay,asyouvesaid,just,justbecausethecrisishasntarriveddoesntmeanthatyouaregoingtohaveaheartattacktomorrow.AndsoItotallyexpecteverythingyouredescribingtohavesignificantnegativeimpactsontheUnitedStates.Atthesametime,IdothinkitsaweirdmomentwheretheUSlooksweak.Ifyoulookatcertainindicators,butYIO,wealsocanlookvery,verystrongininmanyways,right?Justifyoulookatthelasttenfifteenyears,RGDPgrowthhassubstantiallyoutpacedWesternEurope,Canada,peereconomies,right?Westillhavetheworldsmostprofitablecuttingedgetechnologycompanies.Westillhavetheworldsmostcapablemilitary.Andthensocially,andwehavealotofproblems,butarethereotherbigcountriesintheworldthatarebetteratsimulatingimmigrants,thathavehigherbirthrates,thataregeographicallyisolatedfrommajorwarsandrefugestreams,andsoon?Imnotsurethereisabetterbet.SoIguess,ifImlookingforwardfiftyyears,right,isntAmericastill,inthecontextofthewholeworldorder,aplacetohaveacertainkindofconfidencein?Whatdoyoumakethat?Ithinkwecantframeitaslike,IstheUnitedStatesgoingtowinorlose?orIsanythingabadthing?Ithinkweknowwhathealthyis.Thereareonlythreethingsanycountryhastodoinordertobehealthy.Andthisisthroughouthistory.First,educateyourchildrenwell,intermsoftheircapabilities,thequalityoftheirabilitytobeproductive,andtheircivility.Numbertwo,havethemcomeouttoacountryinwhichtheresorderandthatpeopleworktogethertobeproductive,sothatthereisbroadbasedproductivityandprosperity.Andnumberthree,dontgetintoawar,dontgetintoacivilwar,ordontgetintoaninternationalwar.Thatswhatyouhavetodo.Thenyoucouldlookatthefundamentalsofthat.Areweeducatingourchildrenwell,sothattheycanbeproductiveanduncapable,andtheyrecivilwitheachother,thatwehaveacivilpopulation?Dowehaveanenvironmentwherethereisproductivity?Andwecangetalong?Ithinkwehaveterriblecircumstances.IliveinConnecticut,andmywifehelpskidstryingtogetthroughhighschool,thegapsineducation,thegapsinthesethingsandcivilityareourrealproblems.Okay.SoIthinkthatitreallycomestothem.Youknow,itsbasics:Doyouearnmorethanyouspend?Whatisyourincomelike?Whatisyourbalancesheetlike?Thesearebasics,youknowthosebasics.Soifwecanhavethosebasics,Yes,Ilived.IthankGodthatIgrewupintheUnitedStates,because,ohmyGod,itwasunbelievable.Itwastheplacethatanybodyfromanywhereintheworldcouldcomeandtrulybeacitizen.Soithadthatrealmeritocracy.AndIgrewupinalowermiddleclassfamily.Mydadwasajazzmusician.Icouldgotoagoodschool,andIcouldnt—Idontknow—makemyway,okay?AndIthinkofthatcreativityandallthewonderfulthings,broad-basededucation.Amiddleclass—thatwehadamiddleclass,andwehadthosethings.AndsoIveseenthedifference,andright?AndsoIknowwhatthefundamentalsare.AndIlookatmeasures,andImworriedaboutthat.Alright,Radelio,thanksforjoiningme.Thankyouforhavingme.

视频信息 标题: 99%的人死于傲慢，1%的人用语言“创造现实”——江学勤的洞见（双语配音） BV号: BV1kpEA6fEc1 时长: 43分45秒（2625秒） UP主: 高维实验室 原始链接: B站视频 视频摘要 本视频以江学勤讲解希腊文明为线索，探讨语言、诗歌与现实建构的关系。希腊文明奠定西方文明的基础，其核心概念包含"arete"（卓越/德性）与"eudaimonia"（繁荣/幸福）。视频对比了阿喀琉斯式的武士与奥德修斯式的演说家：两者都追求arete，但武士以武力将自身现实强加于世界，而演说家则以语言"投射电影"——构建他人必须栖居的新现实。视频进而引入康德认识论：人并非现实的被动观察者，而是积极建构者；时间与空间是心灵用来组织世界的范畴。语言正是这种建构的工具，诗人凭借与"宇宙精神"（Geist）的连接，从永恒记忆中召唤素材，将当下经验与永恒精神熔铸为诗，从而为集体创造共享的现实。希腊悲剧通过"傲慢"（hubris）与"净化"（catharsis）让观众在共情中反观自身、承认局限。雪莱所言"诗人是世界无名的立法者"，揭示了诗歌作为通往神圣之门的力量——1%的人通过语言创造现实，99%则被动接受。 核心要点 Arete与Eudaimonia：希腊文明的两大核心概念，“arete"指个人卓越的德性，“eudaimonia"指唯有发挥arete才能实现真正的幸福与自我。 武士与演说家的对照：阿喀琉斯代表以武力征服的武士路径，奥德修斯代表以修辞说服的演说家路径，两者本质都是"将自身现实强加于世界”。 演说作为现实建构：演讲的真正目的是"把电影投射到世界上”，构建一个他者必须进入并信服的新现实，奥德修斯劝说阿喀琉斯的长篇演说即典型例证。 康德式认识论：人不是现实的被动观察者，时间与空间是心灵用来组织世界的先天范畴，我们主动参与塑造现象而非直接接触物自体。 诗人与Geist：诗人作为真正的先知，能够接通宇宙精神（Geist），从集体记忆中召唤素材，将当下与永恒熔铸成诗，创造集体可栖居的现实。 希腊悲剧的教化功能：悲剧通过展现主人公因hubris（傲慢）走向毁灭，引发观众的怜悯与恐惧，达到catharsis（情感净化），让人在共情中认识自身局限。 诗歌作为通往神圣的门户：诗歌能突破时空的遮蔽，激活想象力，让人感知永恒与神圣；诗人如同"无名的立法者"，其语言塑造了整个文明的现实。 视频全文转录 口播原文，由本地 Paraformer/Groq Whisper 转录 + M2.7/LongCat 标点修复。 第1段 Sothealiiadisafoundationofgexciilizzwhich,whichisthegcicivilizationinhumanhistory.Themostcreativeitgaususumplatalfacilitiesherotiisissuisisyourbeautiessvilizties.Umgreekcivilizationisessentiallythefoundationumwessiancivilizzzation.Sothequestionwelookattodayisgreekpossiofthataepiiccemcangivebirthtocicivilization.Okay.Soumthethingofunderstandagciciilizzationisthattherearetwoimportantconcepts.Thefirstiserititysorrymararity.那secondisyoulimoniasoeritaymeansvirtueaccidentsorcharacter.It’ssomethingthatmakesyouspecialwhatyouexcelat.Okay.Andtraditionally,uh,therearetwotypesofera.There’swarfighting,andthereisspeechmakingingoogizzzzation.Theparagonofthewarrioris,ofcourse,akeilis,andtheparagonofthegreatortour.Thegreatspeakerisatthissest.Sowe’rereadingtheiliadrightnowah.Andthenafterwefinihatethat,willwetheotdesy?Okay.Sothesearethetwotwogreatcharactersingreekcivilizzation.Akeyleastthegreatwarriorandknowthisyearstogatethegreatorartour.Okay,youlikemonniameansflourishing.Andtheideaofyouuumoniaisthatyoucanonlybehappy.Youcanonlybeyourselfwhenyouareachievingyoureritatewhenyou’reexpressingyourarity.Soofexample,akilllessbeentheUA.Hetellsusthatbeforeyoucantotry,youwouldgiveitaprivacy.Hecouldeitherdieoldathomeorguyyoung,butaheroonasourceofchoy.Anysad,well,dota,ofcourse,i’madieyoungintry,becauseonlybyfadtingearningbywinningglory,caniachieveyou?Diammoniakay?Andthat’swhyhesawunhappywhenhegetsaphopeandamenon,andhehastositupthewar,andhefixedoutdifferentwaysofgettingbackintothebattle.Becausewhilefighting,hecan’tbeakillless,heisthepygonofthewarrior.Okay.Sothat’sideayoulikegmonia.I’veonlybehappywheniambemycreativebestwhenwheniamachievingmytruepotential.Ok,nowforthequeickswar,fightingandspeechmaking,iwouldthesamething.Butfordifferentmeans,it’swhenyoufghtawar.Whatareyoutryingdoisyou’retryingtopushyourrealityontotheworldandmakeothersbelievewhatyoubelieveright?Youdothatforforce,拜ubooststggthshowthatyoursuperiorandbefore他为什么所背右，butspeechmakingisactuallytrytoachievethesamething,给beautifulword.Okay.Soratherthanforforceforbeauty.Andfortruth,youaretryingtocreateanewrealitythatotherssubmitto,intheexample,ofcourse,isaspeechbetweenthespeechesbetweenardisiasandakillips.Okay,onDCSandakillless.Itorememberthecontext,umakillegugetsfivefiveegmenon.Herefusedthefightandthechildren’sledbyhectorordestroyingthegreece.Soegmenonandonthisisandtheothersnesturyhaveaworkcouncil,andtheyagreethatthe’llgoback,accusedcomeback.Ok,ilovethisyearsandmr.Andothers,theygotoklethese.Andtheypresentanargumenttoakillless,Andaudience,audiencegivesaverylongspeech.Now,thequestionforusis:whyarethespeechesintheIliadsolong?So,gotthatlong,right?Theseideascansimplysay,Hey,killthisguy.Look,ahundreddollars.Wefightforus.Please.Hecouldalsosay,Hey,killthisridiculousthing,anditwillbecompleteforus.Okay,hecanmakeitvery,veryshort.Whyisitsolong?Right?Andthenthekingsays,Whatresponsecouldbelike?No贼笨.Healsooffersverylongspeech,andtheansweristheyrenottryingtorespondtoeachother.Theyretryingtocreatetheirownreality.Okay.Sowhenwewill,wespeech,whatyoureally,reallydoisyouretryingtoprojectamovieontotheworld.Youretryingtocreateanewrealitythatothersmustinhabit.Okay,thatswhyspeechmakingiswhatyourefightingfor.Youretryingtoquityourownrealityandimposeitonothers,right?Torememberwhatthisisdoing.Heknowsthatakillisforhim.Itsreallyaboutface,right?Hislostfaceinfrontoftheothers.Andthatswhyhewontbackdown.Thatswhyheinsistsonamanonapologizing.Okay,butbutthisisalsoknowsthat,andImsomeoneapologized.Soforthisisbecauseheisthegreatorator.Um,thatishisairtake.Whatdidhehedototrytodo?Itstrytoquitarealitythat,likeyou,theseinhabits,嗯，whichwillconvincehim去joinathisyearsinthework.Okay?Sohowdoyoudothat?Whathedoesisheexpandstheimagination还好ofAchilles.Alright,thatswhatthisspeechsoon.必shetrytocreateanewemotionalrealityforkillersrightnow.Achillesisaselfish,right?Sowhatdoesallthisissaytoakillly?Soforfirstofhesays,isakillers.Iwantyouimaginethisbefore.Herusisgreatfeast.Wecanseethisbeastnowtoimaginewhatstheoppositeofthisfeast:agreatdesertwherewerealldiet,wereallstarving.AndthatsthewarwerefightingrightnowagainstourTrojans.Thatswhyweneedyouback.Okay,itsapowerfulimage原，那你又是energytotakeadelaytothepresentwhereheaddooritisthisgiant,thisstragrunningaroundkillingallGreeksbeforehim,okay.Andthenhetakesakillingstarktoapassandsay,Whenwereyourfatherpreciousbeforeyoucandowar,youpromisingthatyouwouldwingloryforhim,youpromisethatyouwouldntgofortheGreeks.Okay.ThenittakesAchillestothefuture,whichis,letsimaginewhathappenswhenthewinthiswarit,whenwewinthiswar,althoughitisachoy,我有allthetreasureswillbelongtoyou.Achilles,I,again,mynotwillgiveyouhisdaughterforabride,andyouwillbethegloryofallofGreece.Youhavetreasuresandtreasures.Thinkwhatthepresentthinkaboutthepresent.Thinkaboutthepast,thinkaboutthefuture.Expandyourmonoculeles,right?Thatswhataisisisdoingistryingtoexpandhisimagination.Andonceyouenterthisworldthathehascreated,thenyouwillbeconvincedtojoinhim.Okay.Sothatswhatspeechmakingis.Speechmakingisprojectingamovieontoaworldthateveryonecanobserve.Andthenabsorbthisnewreality.Hey,reinterprethisnewreality.哎,anditseemslikethis.AndlikeCritorefusestobebeaten,right?SoCritoseeshisspeechasacounter.嗯,andthisiswhatisonlytoally,whichisveryself-absorbed,withoutit.Okay,right?Soratherthanexpandingoutwardlike,orthisiswise,orthiscontinuestoexpecttocontractinwards,right?HeusuallyusesIalot,right?Me,me,me,orthisneverusesIorwe?Hesalwayslikewe.Okay,soCritosays,Hey,Iunderstandthatlefttractortouseagod.ButwhenIsawhim,heranawayfromme,right?Oh,precious.Mydad,Ishouldgohomeandseehim.Sogoodbyeguys.Andlike,Igonnasharedaughterformywife,Ispeakonher.Idontwantinthiscrap.Okay.Sowhatislike,sohecontractsinwards.Okay.Soandthatswhythespeechistoolong,itssolongbecauseinspeech-making,itsawarofrealities,itsawarofnarratives,andyoucreatenarrativesforspeeches.Okay,butnotthatpollutiontechniquestospeeches,becausethegreatspeechesisnotjusttopaintareality,butyouwanttopaintarealityinwhichitisinternalizedaboutbyothers,andthey,foryou,mustmakeitmemorable.Okay,soremember,inrealclass,Ihadyoudoanassignment,whichisum,writedownthespeech,right?Andeventhoughyoudidntforceyourselvestomemorizeit,youwereabletomemorizealot.对,andIshowedyouthetourofthespeechquestion.Itiswhatmakesitsopowerful.Andtheanswerisbecauseitspoetry,guys.Okay,poetry,andtheelementsofpoetry,ofcourse,are啊,Aesthetics.AndthisiswhyAudiesdoes,well,thisiswhathespecializedin.Okay,drawingpicturesforyoutosee,okay,metaphors,connections.Okay,metaphors,wecallconnections,andconnectionsarethingsthathelpyouclarifyreality.Okay.Andwhichshowsyoucan,whichshowsyouthingsthatyoucouldntseebefore.So,forexample,ifIsaytheskyislikethesea,thatdoesntreallysurpriseyou.Okay.ButIsaytheskyislikeasmell.我们surprisesyou,andbecauseitsurprisesyou,yourememberit.Okay.Andwhenyourememberit,itordersthewayyouseereality,right?Uh,youalsohaveum,diction,choiceofwords,syntax.Okay.Andthesearethingsthatbothareaestheticsandclearlyspecializing,especiallyum,butespeciallyaesthetics.Okay,doesitmakesense,right?Sothetryingtopraytheseartsfortheirspeeches,andtheyhavethesetechniques.哎,you该说Imsorry.Thekeytechniquesisverysimple.Alltheyhadtodowasmemorizetherhetoric.Okay,becausewhenyouremembermyrhetoric,youlearnhowtomakeagreatspeech,right?Andyouunderstoodthatformetomakeagreatspeech,Ineedimpact.IneedpeopletorememberwhatIsay.Ineedtoimprintmyselfonothers.Andthisbecomesthissystem,becomestheverybasisofvisualization.Speech-making,weregivingdone.Youhavetogoinfrontofpeopleandmakeaspeechandquitarealityforpeopletoacceptthis.Whatiswhatleadstodemocracy?哎,还有veryclear.对.NowIwanttotalkabout嗯,how…事实上，荷马创造了文明。 第2段 好，爱。那么这是一封电子邮件，你不能……在我这里，你不能……他是一位德国哲学家，他关注的是我们如何理解现实。我们看到了什么？我们所做的那些事情？我们想了什么我们所拥有的那些想法？他写了一本非常好的书——《纯粹理性批判》，它阐述了这个理论。好，那么他告诉我们的是，传统上，我们理解自己。我们把自己理解为被动的现实观察者。好，这个东西在我们面前，我们站在它面前，然后我们试图理解它。好，康德教导我们的是，不，事实上，我们是现实的积极参与者，我们塑造并形成了我们面前的现实。好，所以康德把世界分成两个。第一个世界是客观现实的世界，物自体，我的诺姆纳，好吧。一旦我们超越它，它们就只是振动。好，我们讨论这个，对吧？整个世界是声音振动，频率。所以我们实际上可以看到这些东西。那么我们所做的是，我们过滤我们周围的世界，把它们变成我们可以理解的东西，称为现象，这些是对我们来说的东西。好，对我们来说的事物——所有对我们来说似乎存在的事物，对吧？我们这样做。 第3段 所以现象需要时间和空间。所以时间和空间不存在于我们之外。它们存在于我们之中，以便首先理解现实。好，所以时间是什么意思？时间只是意味着顺序，对吧。顺序是一、二、三、四、五。我们把东西放进顺序，我们就创造了时间。空间是感觉的概念，感觉是情境。五种感官，对吧？哎，纯空间不存在于我们之外，因为每一个我们之外的东西都只是纯粹的能量，好吧，但我们的心灵无法感知那个纯粹的能量。我们使用时间和空间的概念来理解我们周围的世界，来组织我们周围的世界。好，对吧。但是这意味着的是，它我们能够控制时间和空间，我已经错误地把压力本身。好，凯不存在。这感觉像是什么——纯粹空间？这东西叫做语言。好，在之前，我们只是用语言感知自己的时间和空间。好，我们能够达到对现实的集体理解，对吧？谁创造了语言？诗人们创造语言，因此诗歌创造现实本身。我认为这正是他试图做的。他试图为他的诗歌，为每个人创造一个新的现实来生活。这是一个人们彼此和睦相处的现实，一个人们……人们喜欢……忘记他们的仇恨的现实。 第4段 我继续为共同利益而战。好，好。所以尽管我们每个人都有自己的现实理解，一个诗人能够创造出如此美丽的语言，以至于它来到我们这里。我们将语言内化。我们吸收一种语言。然后我们一起用语言作为构建块创造一个新的现实。好，让我让那些人好吧。好，哎，所以让我解释现在荷马是如何能够做到这一点的。好，让……让一些如何荷马……它将做到这一点后面，嗯，怎么样？怎么样？一个诗人能够创造现实？好，所以诗人在世界上是独特的。诗人。嗯，是的，真的，是真正的先知。好，所以如果你看看过去所有这些伟大的宗教人物，Including啊Jesus,includingJobDusa.Theywerewithjustfigures.Theyrereallypoets,OK.Andhowtheyareabletoworkistheyhavethebyconnectiontotheuniverse.这我会靠啊嗯哎。Sotherewouldhavebeennamesfortheuniverse.Okay.Sohey,goal,thejuryphilosopherusedtheterminGeist,guest,gate.WhatisGeist?Well,guys.ItshardtotranslatevisithisGerman.Okay,butthinkofitasthreeEnglishwords.Andinfact,actually,uh,GeistwillkeepustwoEnglishwords.ThesethreeEnglishwordsareghost,guest,justauhGeither.Okay,Geitherisaneruption.Okay,Geististheunderlyingthingandthegist,theessence.Okay,thatswhattheGeistis.TheGeistisallroundus.ItsliketheGeiser.Itsalwayschanges,alwaysbecoming.ItsalwayseruptinglikeauhGeyser.Itsreallytheessenceofthingsthatthejustokay.喂,Improjectinghowthewarheusesaclimaticunconscious,Icouldgetunconscious.Platowillusetheworldoftheforms.Mydeals.Ok,Christianswillsayhappenwhatever.Okay.Ok,butbesurethetheuniverserightandrememberhowwesaidbefore,ourmemoriesarestoredintheuniverse.Theuniverseisalwayslikeadeeppsychicnet,right?Soeverysinglememoryisstoredinsidetheuniverse.Andwhatpoetsdoistheyreabletoaccessthisuniverseandasaresulttobeabletosummonthememoriesoftheuniverseandtheydo.Andwhentheydothat,theycreateepicsofpoetry.Okay,right?TheIliad.Nowaswekeepdiscussing,whenwereadtheIliad,eachcharacterisarealperson.Okay.Eachcharacterhasalivingpast,present,andfuture.Byreadingspeechesoftragedies,youunderstandhismemory,heunderstandswherehecamefrom,whathewantsandwherehesgoing.Okay.SoeveryoneintheIliadisalivingbreathingcharacter.Heshomewhenhewilldothat.Hesabletodothatbecauseheisabletosummonthesepeoplefromtheuniverse.Okay,eventhoughyouredead,yourconsciousnessisstillaliveintheuniverse.EventhoughHomerisonlywithus,hisconsciousnessisstillwithintheuniverse,soitspossiblethroughilluminationtoactuallyconnectwithHomerdontshakeit.However,okay,theyreallthere,andthatswhatHomerisdoing.HesabletoconnectwiththesepeopleandbringthemintotheIliad.Okay.Butbecausethesepeopleareliving,theepicitselfisalivingmemory,okay.WhatImeanbythatisokay.ThepurposeoftheIliadistocreateamemory,alivingmemory,forpeopletoobserve.OK.Soremember,Homer,heisabardatthistime.Youdontreadhim,right?Sowhathesdoingisheswandering.Thisiswhathesdoing,whichishesgoingfromtowntotown,peoplearesurroundinghim.Heishundredsofpeople.Andthenfortheevening,hereciteshispoetry,andhesdoingwhat,butthisiswhathesdoing.Hespaintingamovieforeveryonetoobservetogether.Anditsthesamethingwhenyougotoamovietheater,whereyes,itsthesamemovie.ButwhatIwanttoexperienceistobedifferent,okay.Andhowitbecomesdifferentisthatyouembedyourownqualities.TakeyourownunderstandingintotheIliad,soitbecomesasharedcreation.Andwhenyoudothat,whathappensisthatyoureallyconnectdirectlytotheuniverse.Okay?So,inotherwords,theIliadthedramaathenceencewaswhowhere’soverelse?Itmaynotapproachtoitsperfection,evercoissescauseswiththemoralandnaturalgreatnessoftheage.Alright,soatheateratactenceprovoke,thesetremendousfeelingsinpeoplethatmadethemintomoropeoplewithambitionwithcreativity.喂，thetragediesonthesenianpoets,orasmirrorsinwhichaspectatorbeholdhimselfselfunderththdestskiesofcircumstandsshouldofall,butthatidedealprofessisionenergy,whicheveryonefeelsstheinternaltypeofallthatheloves.Andmarsandwouldbecome好rightOK.Soyeah,theideaofpoetry.Theideaoftoothisit’samirrorinwhichyoucanlookatyourself.Youlookattheworldaroundyou.Thekilliesarethisyearsareinyou,andyouareinthem.Andbyobservingthemobjectively,youcanbetterunderstandyourself.Theimaginationisn’tlargebysympathywithpaysandpatononsomightythattheyextandnoconceptionlikecapacityorthatbywhichtheyareconceived.Thegoodaffectionsarestrengthby,ppity,intnationterrorandsorrow,andanexacttlecalmisprolongfromthecityofthishighestsizeofthemintothetommolofamiliarlife.Okay.Sotheideaofgreicktragedyisumepithonyandcartharsis.Sowelookatuhgreattragedy.There’saverycommonpatern.Okay.Sothere’satragiccharacterandhe’sunddonebyhupris,andthat’sagreattragicflawishupris.He’sarrogant,ahupreishashupris.Hethinkhe’sbetterthaneveryoneelse.Everymanhashashupris.He’sgrotoanyoneelse.Okay,buttrpiswilldebuceofhuprishavethewilldebuisofhupris.Soit’shupristhatisthegreatakillerorpeople.Okay,noabouthowgreatyouare.Yousufferfromhupris,thegreater.Youarethemoreyousufferfromhuperis,whichcanonlyleadtotragedyandyou’reservingthis.Andyourecognizethat,ohit’shubristhatleadstotragedy,andtherefore,itwillmakeyoumuchmorehumbleperson.Okay,thisiswhatwecallepithony我，regardlessofyourpivany.You’restillgoingtofacetragedy.Okay,theprojectstubeenupfar.Sohectorandnoonehowgreadyishe’swonnadiebutrodsenomathowinnocent.Heis,he’sdointodie.Okay.Andthiswilllead.Andsowhathappensisyoufeelaconnectionofthatperson,youcry.Andthisleadsyoucaughtparses.Okay,conararisisbasallyporridge,whateverfeelingsthatyouhave.Youcry,youparchyourfeelings,youyouporch,yourhupsh,youporchyourhatred.Okay.Andthiswillmakeyouawholeperson,不允许commitorstarces.Whathappensisthatyounowconnectwithacharacteritselfll.Sothecharacterternowlivesinyou,andyouliveinthecharacter.对，andthatwillmakeyouamuchbetterperson.Doesitsense?Guys?Ievencrime.It’sthisarmofhabithwore.Andolivetataonbybeingrepresentedasafatlowconsequenceoftheunfaundableiencyofnature.Eroorsdoesdiverssionofitswolflinenessmchanllbacherishinitasecreationoftheirchoice,adramofahighestorder.Thereislittlefoodforsensororhatredisisratherthemselfknowledge.Andoursubrespectnearly,Iknowaminecanseeitself,andthatsreflectionuponthat,whichresemblesthedrama.Solongasitcontinues,expresspoetryisasaprismatic,andmanystartedmirror,whichcollapsesabusinessraceofhumannature,divideandbeproducedofthemfromthesimplicityoftheseelementary,formedandtouchesbonewithmajestyandbeautyandmultiplyallthatitreflects.Andindulgeitwithapowerduplicating.Itslikewhereveritmayfall.Okay.Sothisisvery,verywrong.Itsaverynobleidea.Theideaisthatwhenyouwatchatragedy,K?Whenyouobserveatragedy,youreobservingafundamentaltruthabouthumannature.Okay,whichisthatweregoingtobetragic,theclassicthatclassiccases,etc.Okay,Oedipusisamanwhokillshisfather,marriedhismother,andwediscoveredthetruth,heblindshimself,M.N.Hegoesintoexile.Okay,andifyouactuallyreadthetragedybySophocles,hedidnothingwrong,youespeciallyfate,itsjustanaccident.Butunfortunately,thatswhatlifeisabout.Okay.Soyouareagreatpersonwhenyoureabletoacknowledgeyourlimitations,youareabletoacknowledgefateanddestiny,butyoustruggleregardless,okay.Thatsit.Thatsthereality.Thatistorecognizeyourlimitations,torecognizetheuniversemayhaveagrudgeagainstyou,butyoustruggleonregardless,okay.Andthatstory,whenyouwatchityourself,itbringspitytoyou.Itbringspity,butitmakesyoualsomuchmorewiseandeffectiveabouttheworldthatwelivein.Okay,andthatscreateswisdom.Thatsgreatempathy.Thatsquitemorality.Mmm,andthatswhygreatdramaisimportant.Okay,nowletsgo.Thepassage:Poetsarenotonlysubjecttotheexperiences,ourspiritsofthemostrefinedorganization,buttheycancolorallthattheycombinetheevidencein.Hugeofthiseither,okay,right?Thisisareallyimportantidea.Rememberhowwesaidthatpullitofaconnectiontothebin,right?Sotheyareabsorbingtheguys.Theyareabsorbingthemanner.Okay,butsametime,theyreabsorbingtheworldallaroundusmaterial.Okay,thatabsorbinghumannaturetoobservingeachlikelifeitself.Andwhattheydoistheycombinethesetwotogether.Okay,thepresent,thejournaltheyhearwiththeforevermayturnitintowordsthatareabletoexpressboththematerialandthespiritualtheyhearintheforever,thepresentandtheeternal.Okay,aword,atradeintherepresentationofasceneorapassionwilltouchaninternalcord,canaddemotionormetaphorinthechannelcourtinchannelcourt.Isthisyourconnectiontotheview?Okay.Sothisword,becausebecauseitssobeautiful,thissentenceissobeautiful,oritawakensyourmemory.Okay.Thisisareallygoodideawherewearealwaysinaprocessofre-coordination,right?Sowhywehearinthisworldbecausesurearethingsthatwecanexperiencethatwecannotexperienceinthespiritual.Wearespiritual.Weareformless.Wehavemanybodies,therefore…wecanup,wecanupsex.Wecan’thavepay.Wecan’tlove.Okay.Whenthisworldwecan,what’simportantantcentisthatwhenwebeingcarneitintothisworld,ourmemoriesofaformerselves,andofthisvirtualarelostjuice,otherwisewecan’tactuallylive的来，thatwouldthatwelive.Okay,butpoetry,itcanexposethebuyatthepresent.Studentworldwillsparkyoursoul.Yoursoulistheforevermemberofallyourlivesinyourconnectiontothespiritual.Ok,但是coetrydoesporturewithagatewayintoyoursoul.Andweanninate,okay,inthosewhomeverexperiencetheseemotions,thesleeping,thecalledtheburidimageofthepast,right?Soyouhaveallthesepastlivesinyouthatyoudon’trememberandthesudent,weweacertainMM,willwemightreinninatealwayspasasslivesinyouandtherewillsomeoneinsayshey,theremember,okay.Andthiswilldeleateyou.Poetrydoesmakesinmodelallthatisbestandmostbeautifulintheworld.Itarrestthevanishingoperations,whichhalttheintellunationsoflifeandbailingthem,orlanguage,orinformsensomesforthamongmankind,bearingsweetnewsofkindlejoytothosewithwhomthesysisaboabiandtherethere.Nomoreportal,alprespression,thecarrentsofthespirit,whichinhabitintotheuniverseofthings,poetry,deemsfromdecay,thevisittationsoftheabvityinman,menandmen.Ok,thethisgodinusandpoetrywillremindsus.Thereisgodinus.There’sgoteverywhere,andwhattoremindsus.There’sgodeverywherepoetry.Let’sseethethebuyeverywhere.Okay.Wheniableseethisbecauseofourmindswork,weyouwillonlyseeabletoseafood,timeandspace.Butpoetryishelpsusgobeyard.Comeinspace,aconnectimmediatelytothetornal.Okay,tothebuytothespiritual,allthingsexistastheyareperceived.Okay.Soagain,theideaofcaled,wherewherewecanonlyseethingsfulltimeinspace.Okay,thesearethingswewecansee,butyouknowwhat?Therearethingsthatwecanfeelthatwecan’tsee.It’safeelingsthatmatterandlimulationtothepercipient.Themindisitsownplace,andallitselfcanmakeaheavenofhowahellofhelpthem.Okay.Butwhatthistellsusisthatifwelookhowtocontrolourminds,wecontrolrealityitself,okay,butpoetrythatfitsoccurs,whichfindsustobesubjectedtotheaastacsuroundingimpressions.Okay,weunderstandthisideidetheideaiswepoetryactivateourimaginationbeforeweunderstandourourownkingking.Soweallcanseeuswhatwesee,buttheteretrytryvesusushighghstsite.Italallowsustoseethebeforewepoetryjusttimeinspace,theeternal,thepast,thefutureandwhereitspreaditsownfigurecurtainordrawwslikedarkballfrombeforetheseenofthings,itequallyqutesforusofbeingwithinourbeing.Okay,okay,wesomeweuseourmagination.Italcreitournewrealityforourselves.Itmakesusinhappenofofworldworld,whichwhichthefamiliarworldisachaos.Ifweproducesacommonuniverseofwhichareportionsandandcicipencets,Itpurchasesfromourinside;itwasinsidethefilmofthefamiliar,whichobscuresfromusthewonderofourbeing.Itcompelsustofeelthatweexceedtheimaginationthatweknow.Itcreatesanewdivineconditioninourminds,buttherecreationorimpressionofboundlesshorror,itcompressestheboatandtwowordsofcastle.Itcomesintheportdeserved.Thenamecreator,thepoetisacreatorofourworld,andthepoethastheimaginationtoseethingsbeyondandcommonspacebeyondthisreality.Thepoetusestheseemotionsandwordsthathelpusourselvesconnecttothedivine.Okay,poetryisaportaltothedivine.Thisisclearlygood,greatguys.哎，所以我会更敬佩最不动感情的英雄，觉醒的同伴和支持者，为了改变伟人的观点而艰难工作，或者说是诗歌。 第5段 诗歌是授权的基础。Okay,itisfromportion,everythingmustcomefromatjustperiods.Theresanaccumulationofthepowerofcommunity,communicatingintentandpassion,conceptionsrespectinginmenandnature.Thepersoninwhompowerresidesmayoften,aswepart,regardmanyportionsofnaturehavelittleapparentcorrespondencewiththatspiritofgoodofwhichtheyareattheministers.Butevenwhiletheydenyajury,theyareyetcompelledtoservethatpowerwhichisseatedonthephoneoftheirown.Sookay,sopoetsdontactuallyknowtheirprofit;poetsdontknowtheconnectiontothemannerofthevideo.Theyjustdowhattheydobecausetheyhavenochoice.Okay,theresafireboardinginyou.Youhavetoletitout.Otherwise,youcantsleep,youcanteat.Okay,poetorprofitwhomustspeakthetruth,otherwisetheywilljustsuffocate.Okay,theylljustdrawintheirownmisery.Itisimpossibletoreadthecomputercompositionsofthemorecelebratedwritersofthepresident,whilebeingstartedwiththeelectriclifewhichburnswellwithintheirwords,okay.Poetsthemselves,theyarethemessengersoftheline.Flame,okay.Heisborn.Whenyoureadtheirwords,youcanseetheflameinthem.Okay,sowecanknowHomer.Wedontknowwhothisguyis.Weyetwedontknow.Wedonthavehispicture.Wecanseewhenwereadhim,hesalivestill,okay.Hiswordsstillburn.Theyimaginethesecondconferenceandsoundthedeathofhumannaturewithacomprehensiveandopenspirit.Andtheyarethemselvesperhapsthemostsincerelyastonishedatitsmanifestations.Okay,itsallinspiration.Whensomeoneisspeaking,doesntnoticespeaking,hedoesnt.Areyoutoldmethatthiscomingofthisbubble,hesabletounderstandallthis?Whatallthisisdoing,orthisiswhentocreateareality,andhesusingimages.Hesusingdiction.No,no,hedoesntunderstandanything.Hejustonebubble.Okay,hesjustavinefire.Hesachannel.HesjustchannelingGod.Okay,hesjustaportalforGodtospeakwiththeuniversewithus.Poetsaretheheroesofanunboundedinspiration.Okay.Themirrorsofthejacanicshadows,whichfutureallycastuponthepresent,thereareprofitstothefuturespeakingtoustoday.Okay,right?Godispast,future,present.AndsoinGodspeaks,Hesalsospeakingtothefuture;theGodwhichexpressedwhattheyunderstand,notthetrafficwhichseemstobattleandfeelnotinspired.Thewords,whichismove,notbutmoves.Poetsaretheanonymouslegislatorsoftheworld.Okay,poet,ourprofitsandtheirwordscreateourreality.Everythingthatweknow,everythingthatwedo,itsbecauseofthelanguage,thelanguagethepoetcreates.I我看thatmakessense,guys.Thatsahomeworkcrystallationbecauseisgonewillofit,thatHomerspeakstruthandwilledthatthistruthwillspreadacrosstheworldforitspoetry,OK.Itsallbydesign.Doesitmakesense?Hi,赶你过来睡不去。 第6段 对，哎，sayouguys,nextclass.Okay.

视频信息 标题: 摧毁你90%收益的陷阱：日内交易的残酷骗局——交易大赛冠军访谈（双语配音） BV号: BV1F4EZ61EAc 时长: 1小时21分07秒（4867秒） UP主: 高维实验室 原始链接: B站视频 视频摘要 本视频采访交易大赛冠军 Marius（曾以 290% 收益赢得美国投资锦标赛），揭示日内交易陷阱与可持续交易系统的构建。Marius 前四年做日内交易，因情绪消耗巨大、回撤难承受、无法想象自己未来五年仍如此而转向波段。核心观点包括：找到匹配个人特质与弱点的交易风格；利用极紧止损制造数学非对称优势（止损减半胜率并不等比减半）；重仓押注每年 400-500 笔交易中贡献 80% 收益的约 15 笔"异常值"；通过研究基本面、价格结构与成交量筛选标的、识别新兴主题（如量子计算）；以固定单笔风险应对波段行情的多因素驱动。他还谈到 AI 在情绪与行为分析上的辅助作用，以及通过深入理解系统每个环节、消除"意外因素"来化解 90% 的交易心理挣扎。 核心要点 日内交易的陷阱：日内交易情绪消耗巨大，每日波动直接冲击本金，连续亏损难以承受，且难以坚持五年十年，是 Marius 转向波段的根本原因。 匹配个人特质与弱点的系统：每个人优势（如深度研究、拆解复杂问题）弱点不同，应找到放大强项、规避弱点的交易风格，而非照搬他人策略。 紧止损的数学优势：止损从 2 ATR 缩至 1 ATR 甚至 0.5 ATR，胜率不会等比例下降，但期望值可提升数倍，制造非对称的风险回报。 异常值交易驱动收益：每年 400-500 笔交易中约 15 笔异常值贡献 80% 收益，目标是增加高赔率交易出现概率，而非预测哪只股票会爆发。 主题识别与集中持仓：通过研究基本面、价格结构、成交量筛选标的，识别新兴主题（如量子计算集群），并以集中持仓放大收益。 固定单笔风险：波段行情受价格之外多种力量驱动，使用固定单笔风险而非动态风险，才能有效控制回撤、把握异常值。 AI 的应用边界：AI 擅长情绪、行为、新闻叙事分析，不擅长价格行为；可用于加速研究，但不能替代交易逻辑与系统理解。 消除意外化解心理挣扎：深入理解系统每个环节的逻辑、预见连续亏损等异常情况，可消除市场"意外"因素，解决 90% 的心理问题。 视频全文转录 口播原文，由本地 Paraformer/Groq Whisper 转录 + M2.7/LongCat 标点修复。 第1段 Trustme,youcanmakemillionsfromdaytrading.Youcanmakemillionsfromscalping.Youcanmakemoneyfromtrading,tradingoppositiontrading.Whynot?Clearly,youcanmakesomethingaboutfifty-sixhightrades,butthefutureoftradingisanalgorithm.ItsnotevenAI.Thefutureisthehybridbetweenthetruediscretionarytrading.Ithinkwhatmostpeoplethinkbeforetransitioninyouis,maynotspendsomuchtimetryingtomasteryourstrategy,oreverythingisgoinggoing.Go,go,trade.No,itstheopportunitythatotherpeoplesearchfor.Thisisanewstuff,isnewstrategy,butthetrueholygrailis,istomeetthemanwhowantstobethefirstworld-classhybridtrader.MarmariusachievedovertwohundredninetypercentreturnintheUSinvestingchampionship.Thequestionis,canyougetaholdofthattrader?Soeitheryouregoingtobeahealthytrader,oryouknow,yourereallygoingtogodownthehardpath.Thebesttraderoutthereisgoingtoemergefromdiscretionaryminds.ButwiththehelpofAI,thatssecond.Thenewmotherregardstoseeoutliertrade.Howoftenwouldyousay?Areyouseeingthemthere?Yeah,Iputallmyfocus,time,startingandhavingateamandspendingmoneyonresearchtoincreaseourchance.Becausetoday,hebreaksdownthestep-by-stepprocessofhisjourneyandhisgoaltobecomethefirstworld-classhybridtraderutilizingAI.Didheventhistrade?Whatwouldyousayisthehardestthingabouttrading?Understandingthingsoutofthissystem.Youdontneedtooperateinonestyle.Youcancreateanykindofstyleinyourtrade.Youcannotliveinaseventy-ninepercentofyourfather.就一直不推thing.Marriusisgreattohaveyouwithustoday.Iwanttostartthingsoffstraightaway.Iwanttoknowwhyisdaytradingthewrongpathfortraderstotakeright?Soitsablankhere.Um,youknow,Imamortizingmydancefearintrading.AndthefirstfouryearsIwasadaytrader,right?AndIwasoneofthemostseriousguysaboutdaytrading.Probable,哎哎,whyshouldntyouberight?LikeIhadnofirstemotionsabouttradingthroughdaytrading,right?Tryanderror.Imademyfirstmoneyhowtodaytrade.Youknow,atsomepoint.Andum,youknow,youneedtolistentoyourselfandseewherethingsaregoing,becauseum,IstartedtradingbackwhenIwaseighteenyearsold,right?So好,thepersonwhoyouknow,youandthebank,right,yougrowatrader.Yougrowaperson.Soatsomepoint,theremaybesomeconflictinsideofme.Andreally,thesetwothingsneedtobesynced.Isthatagoodpoint?Thatum,youknow,Ireallyenjoythetrading,right?Therearesomanygoodelementsthere.Butyouknow,um,Inoticedthatthereareafewthingsthatwerentclicking,right.Icouldntvisualizemyselffiveortenyearsduringdaytrading.Itwassuchanemotionallydrainingride,stayingwholedayliketheoptionsdanceofit.TheonethingthatIcouldntstall,um,andprobablyitwasbecauseIwasntthebestdaytraderoutthere.Andnotthetruth.Okay.wecangodifferenttothat.嗯，butdomomtheroad是thevolatilityandthinkindetratraatinggies,everydordanthatyouhaveright.呃，it’sadrawonofyourprinchbookspital,right?Becauseyoucloseyourpositionsattheendoftheday.Soeverythingisprincipal,everythingisbackinast.Sowhawhaververthoseyouyouit’sitsmoney,youactuallyown你工作室不想thinklongerthemlikeasrmcredingwhereyouhaveabirthtallli’reright?因为他们five,sixpercentuhdowndayyouaredownweek,butthatdoesn’tregisterrightawaybecauseit’snotactuallythemoneyyouhave.Youhaveknowthemoneyyouhaveisthecastplusthemoney.I’llgitedinthepositions,thedayoftheentry.Sofivedayscanboston.Thismoneycanbewaymorethanitwhenbeforebythenaaterathing,everydroddownwasreredistteredright啊。 第2段 Sothat’swastheconflictforme.Andumprobablybecauseitwasn’tthebestdaytraderoutthere.Ineedtofinethethingsright.Anduhandoneofthethingsthatmademestartconverting,andisayiwasreallyobjessed.Ididn’twanttohearhethingaboutabouttraingtrading.Anythingaboutthepositiontrading.I’mdivingyoulike.Andirememberbyone,twothousandandtwentywheniwasseeingthingsexplode,anditwasagreatmarket啊，一楼啊forforallsortsoftrading,rightmainreversionofgoinglong,likethingsexploded发子。 第3段 Umandiwasrememberseeingthat,thatyouknow,嗯，youknow,havingdatetradingentryinsomestocks,right?Likeifijustwentonnotsock,whatwrtenenedputmystopbreakeventhenextdayandjustwentonvgeationfor不玩，忙子completelyofthechargerightwiththatentry.Andthestockexplodingtwoonehundredpersontothreehundredperson.Stufflikethathappenedsomuchsiblytobackinintheday是吧。Iwakeup,mademoremoney,thenbttlelinkwithaday,bitcheverysingleday.Sohere’sthethingislike,umthebeautifulthingaboutthemarketisyoudon’tneedtochangewhoyouare.Youneedtofindthestylethatreallyelevatesthestrengthofyouorright.Andheisisagainstyourweaknesses.Right?So,trustme,youcanmakemillionfromdaytrading.Youcanmakemilanksfromscalping.Youcanmakemillifromtratratratradingtratrainof,right?So,well,probabdotofeityourpersonality.So,well,well,probablywwouldn’tbethebesttratradingoutthere.Andiwasn’tright,whateverstrengthofdaytradinging,right?Soorwhatwhat’remakeweaknesses,right?Soinoticeasaperson,that’showeveryoneshouldthinkofit.Igotothefirstprinciplesofwhoyouareasaperson.Soformyself,right.Sowhatoutsideoftrading,iwasmakingmanymistakes,ifistartedthem,youknow,mymistake,justofanygoodthingimademoreandmoreinlife,right?Right?Iwasn’tthatpreciseinmylife.Iwasn’tthataccurateinmylife来的呃，howthebigeagleinmylifeaswell.Probablyiwasn’tthatsmart.I’mnotthatsmartofaguyfasttoreactguy.I’mnotthatkindofagoodrightthatthatreallyadjustquicklyinlife.Buttheseweremyweaknesses.Whatwormerstrenrenks,ThoughImreallygoodatunderstandingcomplexliveproblems.Alright,really…Um,Ididdeepdives,findingthestring.Youknow,Imfoldingit.Imunderstandinghowtoeliminatenoise.Uh,seeaboastamountofthat.Andunderstanding,youknow,uh,theyunderlyingmeaningsfromit.Thatsaquiet.Itneeded…forlongerthantrading.Andmyweaknesses,right,mygonna…mistakes,thewayImoperating.Now,hello,Icandofivethantwentyconsecutivelosingmistakes.AndIcanlosetwentyyears,right?Butsincemysystemisbasedonsymmetryasaswingtrader,momentumtrading,right?Whynotlearncanmakemebackfifty,sixty,eightytimes,tenhundredtimes,youknow,backintheextremeoutstrength.Soallmymistakesare…youknow,uh,Icanmakebackallmymistakes.Icanmaketotalmistakesofstabilityrewarded.Soyouseeitsaboutyoujustyoudoisfindingstylereally,reallysuitsyou,understandingwhatareyourstrengths,yourtruthandstrengthandyourweaknesses?Anddontmy…youjuststartedtoadjustthiswithasystem,thatshowyoubecomeinalist…SoIeverbecomeinaleaddaytrader?No,myresultsweregreat.ThatswhereIraisedmyfirstprofitability,alright.ButasIadjusted,Ilearnedtoacceptmyselfandwhatwherewasthattruestrengthandelevatethemthroughthesystemandhadagainstmyweaknesses?Thatswherethingsstarted.Youcrazy.Thingsstartedhappening,right?Yes,youcandoeverything,youcanstillitasasmuchasyouwant.Alright,justtrytolistentoyourself.Thatstheanswer.Whatwasthereflection?Foryouthere?Whatmayyoudothatreflection?Atonepoint,youwouldneverassumedorlookedatswingtrading,oppositiontradingexactly.Whatwasthereacatalyst?Yeah.Uh,notarealizequestion.SoasIsaid,Icouldntstomachthedrawdown,right,right,likethevolatilitywasgetting…Uh,youknow,anotherhadthiswasthe…readofme,notbeingthegreatesttrade…outthere,right?Um…Icouldntseemyselfhavingafamiliar…causeIwasrememberingbackinthosedaysabouttheoutcomewouldhaveparteffectontheday.SolikeIcouldntimaginemyself,youknow,anditjust…thatsjustmeright,havingafamily.Andyouknow,havingaboutthat,yourehavingthatkindofvolatility.Uh,thatskindof…thatskindofpressure,thatkindof…youknow,aprecision.Uh,andthosearesaid,said…whenIsawwhathappened,doesnt…doesnt…itdoesntneedsomuch…youknow,time,youdontneedtooverdoit.Youcandolessthings,butstillprofitmore.Andthenitcameto…andlike,whataremystrengths?As…whataremy…whataremyweaknesses?Andthenyouknow,itwasaprocess,astep-by-stepprocessoftransition,Igo,right?Andthatsreallyimportant,right.Uh,reallyIthinka…IthinkI…IthinkIgotto…board…people,youknow,wehavemadethehundredofthousandfrommillion…onstheyhavemade…Andthey,theysay,Ivemademillions,dothat,right?No,thisisdogma.Andhowdoesthatwork?Tryitasastepdeletiontowhoyouare.Allright,andfindthesystemthatchoosesyou.嗯，你老板的瓜达里斯，thistwocastleiswheretheperformance.IcouldntstoplikeIcouldntwitnessmyselffive,tenyearsdoingthat.Andsoyouknow,seeingthatIcouldmakethesameamountofmoneywithdoingclasses.Um,thesewerethemainconsiderations.Onethingyoumentionedaswellisthatyougoformoreasymmetricinyourtrading,soyoureabletoriskoneRtogetten,oneRtogettwenty,oneRtogetthirty.Sohavingsuchhigherreward-to-riskratios,wasthatquiteanadjustmenttogetusedtocomparedtodaytrading?Becauseassomeonewhousedtoscalp,andthentransitiontoswingtradingmyself—andImbynomeansanactivetrader,orasactiveasIprobablyshouldbeifIwaslookingtoreallyscalemytrading—butIrememberitbeinghardtogetusedtoessentiallyscaling.Anddaytrading,Iwasinandoutveryquickly.AndthenwhenIcametoswingtrading,Ihadtostarttrustingtheanalysis,andstarttradingthethesistoplayoutlongterm.AndIhadtobeabletogetusedtoholdingthesetrades,evenwhentheywouldpullbackandhavethatcontinuation.Whatwasitlikeforyouinthattransition?Yeah,soyeah,itwasntstepbystepprocess,butIstillusemydaytradingtactics.Why?Havingum,Imstilldoingthebuys,andtheweightofmystopsandtheirrisksarethesamewayasIwasdoingbackindaytrading,right?Sothewaytodothatisactually,youknow,protectyourselfearly.Sowhenyoureinaposition,right,andyoubuyabreakout,thesetting,Ishoulddoitstop.Allright,thenletssayonedaylaterortwodayslater.嗯,itsalreadyfiveorsixhours,allright,youcanmoveyourstoptobreakeven.Thenitsarisk-freetrade.Ofcourse,yes,gapdownscanhappen,right.Butinthemarket,inthelongterm,right,uh,thelargenumbers,youcanhavegapdowns.Likethatsthebiggestriskthatpeopletheydreamof.Sayyoucanhavethesegapdowns.Thatsabigrisk,likeyouwouldhavegottenburned.Soallthis,youknow,kindofhandsoutattheendoftheday.Soifyourerisk-free,thenandIsellthem,thenyoucanstomachalotofvolatility.Andothersaid,itsnotseemsyourmostofyourmoney.Itmakesbetweenyourmoney,marketsmoney.Um,youdonttreatthemmostyours,soyoucantrustthemarketsrandomnessinorderforthatoutliertohit.Butofcourse,therearemorenuancesaroundwhyIfocusonthesentiment.呃,andIusereally,reallytightstops.SoIwentback,Imstarted.Actually,youknow,thereasonthatIwantedtousethatstopstrategy,right,isbecauseIhadthismemory,Ihadtheskillsasatradertodothem.Uh,butalsowhatwetalkaboutlong-termtrading,whatmattersmoreistohavenicepositions,right?Likeyouhavetobediversifiedenoughinordertoavoidcompany-specificrisks.Soyoucanhaveasixtypercentpositiononthestock.Right?Becauseyouletjustoneoutvery…ventyourdeck,yardmonthsofyourjourney.Soyouneedtobediversifiedenoughtoavoidthiskindofrisk,butconcentrateenoughfortheoutcometohappen.AndsowhatIwantedinorderforthatbreakeventomakesenseandbestress-freementally.Ineedtohaveareallybigpositionrighton.WheneverIbuyabreak,Idontneedtoputtheminright.AndIwanttohaveabigpositionrightnow,soIcanput…aboutbreakevenandknowabouttheyen,right?Sotheonlywaytodothatwaswithextremelytightstops.AndIalsowasnt…becauseIwascurious,right?Like,you…forus,cemetery,youhuntforextremely,youworktorisk.Butthatcomesattheexpenseofwinrate.嗯,right.SoaquestionthatIalwayshad,youknow,backinthedayswas:howmuch…canIyet?Andistherelationshipoftheweightofstopswithawinratekindoflinear?说明那个。 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