斯坦福：YC创业课 - 第04集：创建产品，聆听用户，增长

视频信息

• 标题: 斯坦福：YC创业课 - 第04集：创建产品，聆听用户，增长
• BV号: BV1oWKpzoE1Z
• 时长: 52分22秒（3142秒）
• 作者: 常春藤中英字幕课
• 原始链接: B站视频

视频摘要

本视频是斯坦福大学YC创业课程第4集，HomeJoy创始人分享从零用户到大量用户的实战经验。演讲者以自身创业失败教训切入，强调创业者应投入连续集中的时间深入理解问题和行业，而非闭门开发。核心观点包括：创业初期要自己动手做服务、画故事板明确用户体验、构建最小可行产品并用一句话定位、尽早让人付费获取真实反馈。在用户增长方面，建议优先通过线下活动和用户访谈获取第一批用户，持续追踪留存和NPS等指标。同时提出三种增长类型（粘性、病毒、付费）的可持续性框架，强调CLV必须大于CAC，回收时间最好控制在3个月内。最后建议连续2-3周零增长时考虑转型，但不要轻易放弃。

核心要点

1. 连续集中时间：创业初期应投入连续集中的时间专注开发，而非每天零散地花少量时间，这样能真正深入理解和解决问题。

2. 沉浸行业自己动手：通过在行业中成为小齿轮、亲自做服务来深入了解行业运作，这是发现低效问题和创新机会的关键。

3. 故事板与MVP：创建产品前应画出完整用户体验的故事板；最小可行产品需要构建最小功能集来解决核心问题，且用一句话清晰定位。

4. 早期用户获取：第一批用户来自朋友、家人和同事；可通过线下集市等场景主动接触用户，即使转化率很低也要坚持从零到一。

5. 用户反馈与诚实曲线：主动走出去与用户深度对话比问卷更有效；付费用户反馈更真实，应尽早让人付费以获得有价值的反馈。

6. 先手动后自动化：在产品正式发布前应手动完成所有流程以快速迭代理解问题，避免过早自动化导致无法快速迭代。

7. 三种增长类型：粘性增长依靠良好体验让用户持续使用；病毒式增长需要构建良好体验配合推荐计划；付费增长需确保CLV大于CAC。

8. 转型判断标准：连续2-3周执行产品却零增长或负增长时，应考虑转型，但保持乐观的增长预期并持续努力工作。

视频全文转录（中英双语）

以下为完整中英双语转录，已加标点。英文在前，中文在后，逐段对照。

由 Groq Whisper 转录 → M2.7 B 方案整文标点 + 分段 → M2.7 段号保留翻译 → 逐段对照。

[段 1]

Thanks for having me. So today I am going to be talking about how to go from zero users to many users. I’m just assuming that you have many great ideas in your head at this moment, and you’re kind of thinking about what the next step is. So I wrote this up early this morning, and a lot of this is based off of mistakes I’ve made in the past. So as Sam mentioned, I went to YC in 2010 and spent three years basically going back and forth, pivoting a bunch of times, starting over a bunch of times, and have learned a lot about what not to do if I were to start another startup after HomeJoy, if that should ever happen.

[译文 1]

谢谢你们邀请我。今天我要讲的是如何从零用户发展到大量用户。我假设你们此刻脑海中有很多很棒的想法，并且正在思考下一步是什么。所以我今天一大早写了这个内容，其中很多都是基于我过去犯过的错误。正如Sam提到的，我在2010年加入了YC，花了三年时间基本上是在来回折腾、多次转型、多次重新开始，也学到了很多关于如果以后再创业（比如在HomeJoy之后）不该做什么的经验。

[段 2]

And so a lot of it comes from failure and just telling you about what you shouldn’t do. And kind of making generalizations of what you should do from that. So just a reminder that this is sort of all advice you should take as directionally good guidance. It’s kind of in the right direction, but every business is different. You are different. I’m not you. And so just take everything with that in mind. So this is a college course. You know, when you start a startup, you should basically have lots of time on your hand to concentrate on the startup. And I’m not saying you should quit school or you should quit work. What I’m saying is you should have a lot of time, compressed time in a row, really dedicated to immersing yourself in the idea and developing the solutions to the problem you’re trying to solve.

[译文 2]

所以其中很多来自于失败，以及告诉你不应该做什么。然后从中总结出你应该做什么的一般性建议。所以提醒一下，这些都只是方向性的指导建议。它们方向是对的，但每个企业都不同。你也是独特的。我不是你。所以记住这一点来对待所有建议。这是一门大学课程。要知道，当你创业时，你基本上应该有充足的时间专注于创业。我并不是说你应该辍学或辞职。我所说的是，你应该有大量连续的、压缩的时间，真正专注于让自己沉浸在这个想法中，并开发出解决你所试图解决的问题的方案。

[段 3]

So, for example, if you’re in school, it’s better to have one or two days straight per week on working on your idea versus spending two hours here and there every single day during the course of the week. It’s sort of like, I think this is engineering class, so it’s sort of like coding. There’s a lot of context switching and just being able to really focus and immerse yourself is very, very important. So like I said, I sort of first, when I wrote this up, was thinking what are the things that some people do or most people do that is not the correct way to do a startup? And sort of the novice approach, I think, is what you see up here: which is, you know, I have this really great idea, I don’t want to tell anyone about it, I’m gonna build, build, build, build, I’m gonna maybe tell one or two people, and then I’m gonna launch it on, you know, I’m gonna launch it on TechCrunch or some somewhere like that, then I’m gonna get lots of users.

[译文 3]

举个例子，如果你还在上学，每周抽出连续一两天专注于你的想法，要比在一周内每天东拼西凑地花两个小时要好。这有点像，我想这是工程课，所以有点像编程。中途有很多上下文切换，能够真正专注并沉浸其中是非常非常重要的。所以正如我所说，当我写这个的时候，我首先想的是，有些人的做法，或者大多数人的做法，哪些不是创业的正确方式？而新手的做法，我想，就是你在这里看到的：就是，我知道，我有一个很棒的想法，我不想告诉任何人，我要建、建、建、建，我可能只会告诉一两个人，然后我要在 TechCrunch 或类似的地方发布，然后我要获得很多用户。

[段 4]

But what really happens is because you did not get a lot of that feedback, and stuff like that, you know, maybe you get a lot of people to your site, but no one sticks around because you didn’t get that initial user feedback. And then if you’re lucky enough, you have some money in the bank, you might go buy some users, but it just whittles out over time, and you just give up. And this is sort of the visual cycle. And I actually did this once, and I did this while I was in YC. When I went through YC, I didn’t even launch a product. I didn’t even launch on TechCrunch, which is the thing that you should definitely do.

[译文 4]

但真正发生的是，因为你没有得到很多反馈，诸如此类的事情，你知道，也许你让很多人来到你的网站，但没有人留下来，因为你没有得到最初的 user feedback。然后如果你足够幸运，银行里有一些钱，你可能会去买一些用户，但它会随时间逐渐消磨殆尽，然后你就放弃了。这差不多就是可视化的循环。实际上我就经历过一次，那是在我在 YC 的时候。当我参加 YC 时，我甚至没有推出产品。我甚至没有在 TechCrunch 上发布，这是你绝对应该做的事情。

[段 5]

And so you don’t want to ever get into that cycle because you’ll just end up with nothing good. So the next thing is, you know, you have an idea, and you should really think about what the idea is really solving. Like, what is the actual problem? And so the problem statement, you should be able to describe it in one sentence. And then you should think, how does that problem relate to me? Am I really passionate about that problem? And then you should think, Okay, it’s a problem I have. Is it a problem that other people have? And sort of verify that by just going out and talking to people. One of the biggest mistakes I’ve made is we started, my co-founder and I, who is also my brother, he and I started a company called PathJoy in 2009, 2010.

[译文 5]

所以你不希望陷入那个循环，因为最终你只会一无所获。所以下一件事是，你有一个想法，你应该真正思考这个想法要解决什么问题。比如，真正的问题是什么？所以对于问题陈述，你应该能够用一句话来描述它。然后你应该思考，这个问题和我的关系是什么？我真的对这个问题充满热情吗？然后你应该思考，好吧，这是我面临的问题。这是其他人也面临的问题吗？并且通过走出去和人交谈来验证这一点。我犯的最大的错误之一是，我和我的联合创始人（也是我的兄弟），他和我于2009年、2010年创办了一家名为PathJoy的公司。

[段 6]

And our goal was basically, we had two goals in mind. One is to create a company that made people really happy, and create a company that was very, very impactful. And a good proxy for that is to just create a huge, big company. And so we thought, Okay, here’s sort of what we’re going to solve is make people happier. And we first went to the notion of who are the people that made people happy. And we came up with life coaches and therapists. So it seemed kind of obvious to just create a platform for life coaches and therapists. And what happened as a result though was that, when we started using the product ourselves, we’re not cynical people by any means, but life coaches and therapists are just not people we would use ourselves.

[译文 6]

我们的目标基本上是，我们心中有两个目标。一个是创建一个真正让人们幸福的公司，另一个是创建一个非常有影响力的公司。而衡量这一点的一个好方法就是创建一个大型公司。所以我们想，好吧，我们要解决的问题是让人们更快乐。我们首先思考是什么让人们快乐。我们想到了人生教练和治疗师。所以创建一个面向人生教练和治疗师的平台似乎是很自然的选择。然而结果是，当我们开始自己使用这个产品时，我们并不是愤世嫉俗的人，但人生教练和治疗师并不是我们自己会使用的人。

[段 7]

It was sort of useless to us. And so it wasn’t even a problem we had, and certainly wasn’t something we were super passionate about building out, yet we spent almost a year trying to do this. And so if you just start from T equals zero, just think about this before you even build any product, I think you can save yourself a lot of headache down the road from doing something you don’t want to do. So say you have a problem and you’re able to state it, where do you start? Like how do you think of solutions? So the first thing you should do is think of what the industry that you are getting yourself into.

[译文 7]

这对我们来说有点无用。所以这甚至不是我们遇到的问题，当然也不是我们特别热衷于去构建的东西，但我们花了将近一年的时间试图这样做。所以，如果你从 T equals zero 开始，在你构建任何产品之前就想想这一点，我认为你可以为自己省去很多麻烦，避免做你不想做的事情。那么，假设你有一个问题，并且能够陈述出来，你会从哪里开始？就像你如何思考解决方案？所以，你首先应该做的是思考你所进入的行业。

[段 8]

Whether it’s big, whether it’s huge, you should really immerse yourself in that industry. And there’s a number of ways to do this. One is to really become a cog in that industry for a little bit. And so it might seem a little counterintuitive to do this, because most people say, If you really want to disrupt an industry, you should really not be this player in it. You know, someone who’s spent 20 or 30 years in an industry probably does sit in their ways and is just used to the way things work and really can’t think about what the inefficiencies are or the things that you can quote-unquote disrupt. But, however, as a new, like, coming into the industry, you really should take, you know, one or two months just really understanding what all the little bits and pieces of the industry are and how it works.

[译文 8]

无论行业大小，你都应该真正沉浸在这个行业中。有几种方法可以做到这一点。一种方法是让自己真正成为这个行业的一颗螺丝钉。这可能看起来有点反直觉，因为大多数人说，如果你真的想颠覆一个行业，你真的不应该成为这个行业的参与者。你知道，一个在行业里待了20或30年的人可能会固步自封，只习惯于事物运作的方式，真的无法想到哪些地方效率低下，或者哪些地方可以颠覆。然而，作为新人进入行业，你真的应该花一两个月时间，真正了解这个行业所有的细枝末节以及它是如何运作的。

[段 9]

Because it’s when you get into the details, that’s when you start seeing things you can exploit, things you can really, things that are really, really inefficient and provide, you know, huge overhead costs that you can cut down. And so an example of this is, you know, when we started HomeJoy, we decided to go into the cleaning industry. And when we started, we just were cleaners ourselves. And we started to clean houses and what we found out really quickly was that we were very bad cleaners. And so as a result, we said, Okay, we’ve got to learn more about this, and we went to buy books. And we bought books about how to clean, which helped maybe a little bit.

[译文 9]

因为当你深入细节时，你才会开始发现一些可以利用的东西，真正非常低效的东西，它们带来了巨大的间接成本，你可以削减。所以举个例子，当我们创办HomeJoy时，我们决定进入清洁行业。刚开始的时候，我们自己就是清洁员。我们开始打扫房子，很快发现我们是很糟糕的清洁员。所以我们说，好吧，我们必须了解更多，于是去买书。我们买了关于如何清洁的书，这可能有一点点帮助。

[段 10]

We learned a little bit more about cleaning supplies. But it’s sort of like basketball, you know? You can watch and you can learn, or you can watch and read about basketball, but you’re not gonna get better at it if you don’t actually train and throw a basketball around and throw into the hoop. And so we decided one of us basically had to go and learn how to clean. And so we went, or get trained by a professional, some sort of professional training program if that existed. And that meant we actually went to get a job at a cleaning company itself. And the cool thing was that I learned how to clean from training for the few weeks that I was there at the cleaning company.

[译文 10]

我们对清洁用品有了更多的了解。但这有点像篮球，你懂的。你可以观看并学习，或者观看并阅读篮球的相关内容，但如果不实际训练、投掷篮球并投篮，你不会进步。于是我们决定其中一个人必须去学清洁。于是我们去找了，或者如果有专业培训项目，就接受专业培训。也就是说，我们真的去一家清洁公司找了份工作。最酷的是，我在清洁公司接受了几个星期的培训后，学会了如何清洁。

[段 11]

But the even better thing was that I learned a lot about how a local cleaning company worked. And in that sense, I learned why a local cleaning company could not become huge like HomeJoy is today. And that’s because they have, you know, they’re pretty old school, and they have a lot of things. Just from anywhere from booking the customer to optimizing the cleaner schedules was just done very inefficiently. And so there’s, so when you go, if you are in a situation like mine where, You know, there’s a service element of it. You should go and do that service yourself. You know, if your work, if your thing is related to restaurants, you should become a waiter.

[译文 11]

但更好的是，我学到了很多关于本地清洁公司是如何运作的。从这个意义上说，我明白了为什么本地清洁公司无法像HomeJoy今天这样做得那么大。这是因为，你知道，他们非常老派，有很多乱七八糟的东西。从客户预约到优化清洁工排班，所有的一切都做得非常低效。所以，当你处在像我这样的情况下，你知道，这里面有一个服务元素的话，你应该亲自去做那个服务。你知道，如果你的工作与餐饮相关，你应该去做服务员。

[段 12]

If it’s related to paintings, if it’s related to painting, become a painter and kind of get in the shoes of your customers from all angles of what you’re trying to build. The other thing is there’s also a level of obsessiveness that you should have with it too as well. You should be so obsessed to know what everybody in the space is doing. And it’s things like running a list of all the potential competitors or similar types of companies, Google searching it and clicking on every single link and reading every single article from search result number one to 1,000. I found all potential competitors, big and small, and if they’re public, I would go read their S1s.

[译文 12]

如果这跟绘画相关，如果这跟绘画相关，那就成为一个画家，从各个角度去体会你的客户，试着去理解你正在构建的东西。另一件事是，你在这方面也应该有一定的痴迷程度。你应该痴迷到想要知道这个领域里的每个人都在做什么。做法包括列出一份所有潜在竞争对手或类似类型公司的清单，在Google上搜索它，点击每一条链接，从搜索结果的第1条一直读到第1000条。我找到了所有潜在竞争对手，无论大小，如果它们是上市公司，我就会去读它们的S1。

[段 13]

I would go read all their quarterly financials. I would sit on the earnings calls. Most of these, you don’t get much out of it, but there’s just these golden nuggets that you’ll find once in a while, and you won’t be able to find that unless you actually go through the work of getting all that information in your head. So, yeah, you should become an expert in the industry. There should be no doubt when you’re building this that you are the expert so that people trust you when you’re building this product. The second thing is identifying customer segments. So, you know, ideally at the end of the day, in the end game, you’ve built a product or a business that everybody in the world is using, but realistically in the beginning you kind of want to corner off a certain part of the customer base.

[译文 13]

我会去阅读他们所有的季度财报。我会参加财报电话会议。这些会议大部分你不会从中收获太多，但偶尔会发现一些黄金 nuggets，只有当你真正花功夫把所有这些信息都装进脑子里时才能发现它们。所以，是的，你应该成为这个行业的专家。当你在做这件事时，你应该毫无疑问地成为专家，这样当人们在买你的产品时才会信任你。第二件事是识别客户细分市场。所以，你知道，理想情况下，最终你会建立一个全世界每个人都在使用的产品或业务，但实际上在开始时你想先占据客户群的某个特定部分。

[段 14]

A certain part of the customer base so that you can really optimize for them. And that’s just, you know, it’s just a matter of focus and a matter of, you know, just, you know, catering towards whether it’s teenage girls or whether it’s, you know, soccer moms. You’ll just be able to, you know, like I said, focus a lot on their needs. And lastly, before, you know, before you even create the product, before you put code down, you should really storyboard out the ideal user experience of how you’re going to solve the problem. And that’s not just meaning the website itself. It’s meaning how does the customer find out about you, whether it could be through an ad or through word of mouth or whatever.

[译文 14]

锁定客户群中的特定部分，这样你就能真正为他们进行优化。这其实就是一个专注度的问题，也就是针对特定人群的问题，无论是 teenage girls 还是 soccer moms。正如我所说的，你就能更多地关注他们的需求。最后，在创建产品之前，在写代码之前，你应该真正地故事板规划出理想用户体验，也就是你将如何解决这个问题。这不仅仅是指网站本身，还包括客户如何发现你，无论是通过 ad 还是通过 word of mouth 还是其他方式。

[段 15]

So they find out about you, they come to your site, they learn more about you, what’s all that tech say, what are you communicating to them. So the actual, when they sign up for the product or they purchased the service, what are they actually getting? To after they finish using the product or after they finish using the service, they’re sort of like an evaluation period, like they leave me a review or they leave comments or whatnot, and just being able to go through that whole flow and visualize in your head, like just envision what the perfect user experience is, and then put it down on paper and then put it into code and then start from there.

[译文 15]

所以他们发现你，来到你的网站，进一步了解你，那些技术都在说什么，你在向他们传达什么。所以实际上，当他们注册产品或购买服务时，他们实际上得到了什么？然后在他们用完产品或用完服务后，有一个评估期，他们给我留下评价或评论等等，能够从头到尾走一遍这个流程，在脑海中可视化，想象完美的用户体验是什么样的，然后把它写在纸上，然后把它写成代码，然后从这里开始。

[段 16]

So you have all these ideas in your head now. You kind of know what the core customer base you want to go after is, and you know everything about the industry. What do you do next? So you start building your products. And the common phrase that most people use these days is, you should build the MVP, Minimal Viable Product. And I underline viable because I think a lot of people skip that part, and they just go out with a feature, and then the whole user experience in the very beginning is flat. So, minimal viable product pretty much means, you know, what is the smallest feature set that you should build to solve the problem that you’re trying to solve?

[译文 16]

所以现在你脑子里已经有了所有的这些想法。你大致知道你要主攻的核心客户群是哪些，而且你对整个行业了如指掌。接下来你该做什么呢？所以你开始构建你的产品。现在大多数人都挂在嘴边的一句话是，你应该构建MVP，即Minimum Viable Product（最小可行产品）。我特意强调viable（可行）这个词，因为我觉得很多人跳过了这个部分，他们只是推出一个功能，然后整个用户体验从一开始就很平淡。所以，最小可行产品基本上就是说，你需要构建的最小功能集是什么，才能解决你试图解决的问题？

[段 17]

And I think if you go through the whole storyboard experience, you can kind of figure out that very quickly. But again, you have to be talking to users, right? You have to be a potential user. You have to be seeing what exists out there already and what you should be building to solve their immediate needs. And the second thing is before you put things in front of a user, you should really have your product, a simple, you know, product positioning down. And what I mean by that is that, you know, you should be able to go to, you know, a person and you should be able to say, hey, you know, this does X, Y, and Z within a sentence.

[译文 17]

我觉得如果你完整经历整个故事板流程，你很快就能明白这一点。但关键是你必须和用户交流，对吧？你必须是一个潜在用户。你必须了解市场上已经存在什么，以及你应该构建什么来解决他们的即时需求。第二点是在你把产品展示给用户之前，你真的应该把产品定位弄清楚，一个简洁的产品定位。我的意思是，你应该能够去找一个人，用一句话说清楚这个产品做X、Y和Z。

[段 18]

And so for example at Homejoy we started off with something actually super complicated. We’re like, we’re an online platform for home services. We started with cleaning, and you can choose, you know, blah, blah, blah, blah, and it just went off for paragraphs and paragraphs. When we were presenting, we went to, you know, potential users to come on our platform. They just kind of get bored after the first few sentences. And so what we found out was that, you know, we really need this one-liner. The one-liner is very important, and it kind of describes the functional benefit of what you do. In the future, when you’re trying to build a brand or whatnot, you should be able to describe what are the emotional benefits and stuff like that, but you’re starting with no users.

[译文 18]

例如，在 Homejoy，我们一开始做的事情其实超级复杂。我们就像，我们是一个家庭服务的在线平台。我们从清洁开始，你可以选择，你知道，各种各样的选项，然后就写了一堆又一堆的文字。当我们做演示时，我们去找，你知道，潜在用户来加入我们的平台。他们在前几句之后就变得无聊了。所以我们发现的是，你知道，我们真的需要这个一句话简介。这个一句话简介非常重要，它基本上描述了你所做的事情的功能性好处。将来，当你在试图建立品牌或其他什么的时候，你应该能够描述情感方面的好处之类的，但是你现在一个用户都没有。

[段 19]

You really need to tell them what they’re going to get out of it. So we simply, after we changed our positioning to get your place cleaned for $20 an hour, then everyone got it. And we were able to get users in the door that way. So you have a MVP going out there. Now, how do you get your first few users to start trying it? So your first few users should be the obvious people, the people that you’re connected with. You should use it, obviously. You and your co-founder should be using it. Your mom and dad should be using it. Your friends and coworkers should be using it. Beyond that, you want to get more user feedback.

[译文 19]

你真的需要告诉他们他们会从中得到什么。所以我们简单地，在把我们的定位改为"20美元/小时帮你打扫房子"之后，每个人都明白了。然后我们才能用这种方式让用户进门。所以你的MVP已经上线了。现在，你如何获得你的第一批用户开始尝试它？所以你的第一批用户应该是那些显而易见的人，那些与你有关联的人。显然，你和你联合创始人应该在用。你爸妈应该在用。你的朋友和同事应该在用。除此之外，你还需要获得更多用户反馈。

[段 20]

And so you and I’ve listed here kind of some of the obvious places to go to and depending on what you’re selling, you can take your pick of the draw here. So online communities, there’s you know on Hacker News now there’s the show HN, that’s a great place especially if you’re building tools for developers and things like that. Local communities, so if you’re building consumer product, you know there are a lot of influential local community mailing lists especially those for you know parents, so those are places you might want to hit up to. Okay. So when you go to, by the way, Homejoy we actually tried all of these. We used it ourselves. That was fine.

[译文 20]

所以我和你在这里列出了一些显而易见可以去的地方，根据你的销售内容，你可以自行选择。在线社区，你们知道在Hacker News上有个show HN，如果你是为开发者构建工具的话，这是个很棒的地方，诸如此类。本地社区，如果你做的是消费者产品，有很多有影响力的本地社区邮件列表，尤其是那些面向父母的，所以这些是你可能想去尝试的地方。好的。顺便说一下，Homejoy实际上我们尝试了所有这些方法。我们自己用过，效果还不错。

[段 21]

We were on a cleaner so that was pretty easy. And then our parents lived in Milwaukee so we were based in Mountain View so that didn’t work. Friends and coworkers are kind of like in San Francisco and elsewhere so we didn’t have too many of them use it. So we actually ended up in a dead end of not being able to convince many people to use this in the beginning. So what we did was, because we’re in Mountain View, some of you guys might know, on Castro Street, they have street fairs there during the summertime. And so we’d go out and basically chase down people and try to get them a book of cleaning. And almost everyone would say no.

[译文 21]

我们当时在做清洁产品，所以这相当容易。然后我们的父母住在Milwaukee，但我们驻扎在Mountain View，所以那行不通。朋友和同事们大多在San Francisco和其他地方，所以我们没有太多人用它。所以我们实际上陷入了一个死胡同，无法在初期说服很多人使用这个。所以我们做的是，因为我们在Mountain View，你们有些人可能知道，在Castro Street，夏天的时候有街头集市。所以我们会出去，基本上是追着人跑，试图让他们买一本清洁手册。而几乎每个人都会说不。

[段 22]

Until one day, we just took advantage. It was a very hot and humid day. And what we noticed was, and this is like at any fair, people, you know, there might be arts and crafts and things like that and random people will, you know, arts and crafts and things like that, and random people will gravitate towards that, but everybody gravitates towards the food and drink area, especially on a hot day. So what we did was, okay, we figured we need to get in the middle of that, and by getting in the middle of that, we just took water bottles, froze them, and then we started handing out free bottles of water that were cold, and people just came to us.

[译文 22]

直到有一天，我们只是利用了这一点。那天非常炎热潮湿。我们注意到，在任何集市上，人们可能会被艺术手工艺品之类的东西吸引，但所有人都会涌向美食饮品区，尤其是在炎热的天气里。所以我们的做法是，好吧，我们觉得自己需要置身其中，于是我们拿了几瓶水，冰冻起来，然后开始免费发放冰凉的水瓶，人们就自动来到我们这里了。

[段 23]

I think we basically guilt-tripped people into booking cleanings, but the proof in the pudding was that I figured most of those people were guilt-tripped into doing it but when they went home they didn’t cancel on us. Well, some of them did, but a majority of them did not, and so we felt… I thought, okay, that’s good, I’ve got to go clean their houses, but at least there’s something we’re actually solving here. So, you know, I don’t suggest showing up to fairs, or I know another startup in the last batch — I forgot their name right now — but they showed up, they were selling shipping type products, we’re trying to replace shipping products, or the concept of mailing stuff, and so they would show up to the US Postal Office and just like find people who are trying to ship products and just take them out of line and try to get them to use your product and have them ship it for you.

[译文 23]

我认为我们基本上是通过情感绑架让人们预约清洁服务的，但真正能说明问题的是，我认为那些人大部分是被情感绑架才预约的，但他们回家后并没有取消订单。嗯，有些人确实取消了，但大多数人没有，所以我们觉得……我想，好吧，这很好，我得去打扫他们的房子，但至少这说明我们确实解决了什么问题。所以，你知道，我不建议去展会摆摊，或者我知道另一家创业公司在上一期——我现在忘记他们叫什么了——但他们去了，他们在卖Shipping type的产品，我们试图取代Shipping产品，或者邮寄东西这个概念，所以他们会去US Postal Office，找到那些想要邮寄产品的人，把他们从队伍里拉出来，试图让他们使用你的产品，让他们帮你寄送。

[段 24]

So you just have to go to places where people are going to really show up, and places where people are going to really show up. And your conversion rate is going to be really, really low. But to go from zero to one to three to four, these are kind of things you might have to do. Okay, so you got some users using you. Now, what do you do with all these users? Customer feedback. So one, the first thing you should do is make sure there’s a way for people to contact you. So support at homejoy.com. Ideally, there’s a phone number. And if you hook up a phone number, one really good idea is to make sure that you have voicemail or something like that so you don’t have to be picking it up all the time.

[译文 24]

所以你必须去人们真正会出现的地方，去人们真正会出现的地方。而且你的转化率会非常非常低。但要从零到一、从三到四，这些是你可能需要做的事情。好的，所以你获得了一些使用你产品的用户。现在，你如何处理这些用户？客户反馈。所以第一件你应该做的事情是确保有让人们联系你的方式。比如 support at homejoy.com。理想情况下，要有一个电话号码。而且如果你接了电话，一个真正好的做法是确保你有语音信箱之类的，这样你就不必一直接电话了。

[段 25]

But in any case, a way for people to get inbound feedback is good. But really what you should be doing is going out to your users and talking with them. Get away from your desk and just get out and do the work. It seems like a slog, and it’s going to be a slog, but this is where you’re going to get the best feedback ever for your product. And this is going to teach you on what features you need to completely change, get rid of, or what features you need to build. And so one way to do this is to send out surveys, to get reviews after they’ve used the product. This is okay, but generally, you know, people are only going to respond if they really love you or they really hate you.

[译文 25]

但无论如何，让人们能够获得主动反馈是一件好事。但实际上，你应该做的是走出去与用户交流。离开你的办公桌，出去实际做这些工作。这看起来很辛苦，而且确实会很辛苦，但这是你获得最佳产品反馈的方式。这会教会你需要彻底改变哪些功能、删除哪些功能，或者需要构建哪些功能。所以其中一个方法是发送调查问卷，在用户使用产品后获取评价。这也可以，但一般来说，你知道，只有当他们真的喜欢你或者真的讨厌你时，他们才会回复。

[段 26]

Are only going to respond if they really love you or they really hate you. And you never get the in-between. So kind of get the in-between, not get all the extremes, is to go out and actually meet the person that is using your product. And it’s not a good idea to, you know, I’ve seen people go out, meet the user, and they sit there. And it’s like a laboratory. And it’s like an inquisition almost. And you’re kind of just like poking and poking and poking at them. Like, why didn’t you do that? Why didn’t you do that? That’s not going to give you the best results. What you should really do is make it into a conversation.

[译文 26]

他们只会在真的喜欢你或真的讨厌你的时候才会回应。你永远不会得到中间的态度。所以想要得到中间的态度，不要得到所有的极端，方法就是走出去，真正去见使用你产品的人。而且这不是个好主意，你知道，我见过人们走出去见用户，然后他们就坐在那里。就像实验室一样。几乎就像审讯一样。你就像一直戳他们，一直戳，一直戳。比如问，你为什么不那样做？你为什么不那样做？这不会给你最好的结果。你真正应该做的是把它变成一场对话。

[段 27]

Get to know them. Get them to feel comfortable. Because you want to get them at a level where they are, they feel like, you know, they should be honest with you to help you and improve things for you. So I found that actually taking people out for drinks and stuff like that was a very good way to do that. I’m not sure if all of you are old enough to do that, but you can take them for coffee. So another way, another thing you should be tracking is how are you doing in general from like the macro perspective. And the one way to do that, the best way to do that is by tracking customer retention.

[译文 27]

了解他们，让他们感到舒适。因为你想要和他们达到一种程度，让他们觉得应该对你坦诚，帮助你并为你改善事情。所以我发现带人去喝酒之类的真的是一个很好的方式。我不确定你们所有人是否都到了可以喝酒的年龄，但你可以带他们喝咖啡。所以另一个方法，另一件你应该追踪的事情是你总体上从宏观角度来看做得怎么样。而做到这一点的方法，最好的方法是通过追踪客户留存率。

[段 28]

That is the number of people that came in the door today, how many are coming back tomorrow, the next day, and so on and so forth. Usually over time you’re kind of looking at, you know, monthly retention. So, you know, people who came in the door today, are they still using it next month and so on and so forth? The problem is, Are they still using it next month and so on and so forth? The problem with that metric is that it takes forever to collect that data, and sometimes you don’t have a month or two months or three months to figure that out. So a good leading indicator is actually collecting reviews and ratings, like five-star, four-star reviews, or collecting some notion of NPS, which is Net Promoter Score.

[译文 28]

这就是今天进门的人数，有多少人会明天回来、后天回来，如此等等。通常随着时间推移，你会关注月度留存。所以今天进门的人，下个月是否还在使用产品，如此等等？问题在于，他们下个月是否还在使用产品，如此等等？这个指标的问题在于，收集这些数据需要很长时间，有时候你等不了一个月、两个月甚至三个月来搞清楚这个问题。所以一个很好的先行指标实际上是收集评论和评分，比如五星、四星评论，或者收集NPS的概念，即Net Promoter Score。

[段 29]

So you’re basically asking them from a rating from zero to ten, how likely are they to recommend you to a friend in calculating the NPS. And so over time what you’ll see is as you’re building in new features you should be able to see that the reviews or the retention is going up over time which means you’re doing a good job. If it’s going down you’re doing a bad job. And if it’s kind of staying the same that means you probably need to go out and figure out what new things you should be building. The other thing is I’ll get to the qualitative thing later, but the one thing you should be wary of is the honesty curve, which is some people will just lie to you.

[译文 29]

所以你基本上是从0到10的评分，问他们有多愿意向朋友推荐你，以此来计算NPS。随着时间推移你会看到，当你在持续构建新功能时，你应该能够看到评论或留存率在不断上升，这意味着你做得很好。如果在下降，那你做得不好。如果基本保持不变，那意味着你可能需要出去弄清楚你应该构建什么新东西。另一件事我稍后会讲到定性问题，但有一件事你应该警惕的是诚实曲线，也就是有些人会直接对你撒谎。

[段 30]

So I was going to just do it. So, I mean, this is like degrees of separation from you. And this is like level of honesty. Like, so here it’s, here this is your mom. This is like your friends are friends, and here’s like random people, and here’s like random people. I don’t know if you can all see this, but… So your mom is going to be, you know… She should use your product, but she’s going to be proud of you anyway. And so she’ll, like, maybe be honest, like, this much. And your friends will, you know, they’ll be pretty honest with you and give you feedback because they care about you. By the way, this is assuming it’s a free product that you’re giving them.

[译文 30]

所以我本来打算直接做的。所以，我的意思是，这就像是和你之间的亲疏关系。这就像是诚实程度的等级。比如，这里，这是你的妈妈。这就像是你的朋友，然后这里是随机的人，这里也是随机的人。我不知道你们能不能看到这个…所以你的妈妈会，你知道…她应该用你的产品，但她反正都会为你感到骄傲。所以她可能会，大概诚实到这个程度。然后你的朋友们，你知道，他们会很诚实地给你反馈，因为他们在乎你。顺便说一下，这是假设你给他们的是免费产品。

[段 31]

And then over time, like, as you get more and more random, these people don’t even know who you are. It doesn’t go like this, really, but it kind of goes like this. Where people don’t care about giving you feedback, they just like, okay, here’s a survey, type, type, type, type. And so you should take this into consideration when getting user feedback. Now, let’s say you make, you pay. It’s a paid product, right? Well, let’s just do this in green. So the paid, you know, your mom is going to be like down here. Like, she’s just going to lie to you and say, she’s just going to feel sorry and say, this is a great product, of course.

[译文 31]

然后，随着时间推移，就像，当你变得越来越随意，这些人甚至都不认识你了。实际上不是这样的，但差不多就是这样。人们不在乎给你反馈，他们就像，好吧，这里有个调查，敲敲敲敲敲。所以在收集用户反馈时，你应该把这个考虑进去。现在，假设你做了，呃，你付了钱。这是一个付费产品，对吧？嗯，我们就用绿色来做这个。所以付费用户，嗯，你妈妈会在这里。就像，她会对你撒谎，她会感到不好意思然后说，这当然是个很棒的产品。

[段 32]

But then it goes like this, right? Which is to say that your friends are going to give you the right, they want to support you and give you the right feedback, but it’s actually these random people out here that, you know, if they really don’t think what they paid for was worth it, they’re going to really tell you because, you know, it’s money out the door. And so this is another way of saying it. And so this is another way of saying you’re going to get the best feedback. Like this is obviously, you know, down here, you’re going to get more feedback if you just make someone pay for it. So that’s not to say, you know, you should, you know, the first time out make people pay for it.

[译文 32]

但事情是这样的，对吧？也就是说，你的朋友们会给你正确的反馈，他们想支持你并给你正确的反馈，但实际上是那些陌生人，如果你知道，他们如果真的认为他们花钱买的不值得，他们会直接告诉你，因为你知道，这是真金白银花出去了。所以这是另一种说法。所以这是另一种说法，表示你会得到最好的反馈。就像这个很明显，你知道的，如果你让人付费，你会得到更多反馈。所以这并不是说，你知道的，你应该在第一次就让人付费。

[段 33]

But it’s to say that you should very, if you’re going to build a product that you’re going to eventually need to, you know, they’re going to pay for it for the software or for the hardware or whatever, you should do that. Get to the point where you can do that very, very fast. Because then that’s when you get the real meaty stuff to help you in the future of how you can get more paying users in the door. All right. So you’re getting a lot of feedback. And what do you do before you officially launch the product? So what you want to do is you always want to be building fast, right? And you want to be optimizing for this stage of growth.

[译文 33]

但我的意思是，如果你要开发一款产品，最终你需要让他们为软件或硬件或任何东西付费，你应该这样做。要达到能非常非常快速做到这一点的程度。因为到那时，你才能获得真正有价值的东西，帮助你在未来获得更多付费用户。好的，所以你会收到很多反馈。那么在正式发布产品之前，你会做什么？所以你想做的是，你总是想要快速构建，对吧？而且你想要针对这个增长阶段进行优化。

[段 34]

That is, you might have 10 users at this point. There’s no point in trying to build features for the point when you have a million users. You want to optimize for the next stage of growth, which is going to be 10 to 100 users. What are the features you really need for that? And just go with that. Basically, on the slide is just many ways of stating that notion. Manual before automation. One of the things that I found when building a marketplace is that process is very, very important over time as you scale. But you need not try to automate everything and create software to just have robots just run everything. What you really should do to understand what you should build is to manually do it yourself.

[译文 34]

也就是说，你目前可能有10个用户。为你拥有一百万用户时的阶段去构建功能是没有意义的。你应该为下一个增长阶段做优化，也就是从10到100个用户。你真正需要哪些功能？就只做那些。基本上，幻灯片上只是用多种方式来阐述这个理念。手动优先于自动化。我在搭建 marketplace 时发现的事情之一是，随着你规模化发展，流程会变得越来越重要。但你不需要试图自动化一切并创建软件让机器人运行一切。你真正应该做的，为了理解你应该构建什么，就是自己手动去做。

[段 35]

And an example of this is when we started taking on cleaning professionals onto our platform, We would have them, we would ask them a bunch of questions over the phone and then in person. We asked them a bunch of questions too, and then they would go to a test/clean, and then they would get onboarded to our platform if they were good enough. And so this took doing all this question-asking for that many candidates. We had about a 3-5% acceptance rate, and so you can imagine all the people we were talking to in the beginning of the funnel that never even made it onto the platform. But what happened over time was that we learned certain questions that we were asking that were indicators of whether they’re going to be a good or bad performer on the platform.

[译文 35]

这方面的例子是，我们开始将清洁专业人员引入我们的平台时，我们会通过电话然后当面问他们很多问题。我们也会问他们一堆问题，然后他们会进行测试/清洁，如果足够好的话就会被纳入我们的平台。所以这对这么多候选人进行所有这些提问工作需要大量精力。我们大约有3-5%的接受率，所以你可以想象在漏斗顶端我们与之交谈的所有人，他们甚至从未进入平台。但随着时间的推移，我们发现我们问的某些问题能够预示他们在平台上会是好的还是差的表现者。

[段 36]

Through just data collection and just looking at everything, we could just ask on an online form. So that’s when we put in an online application, they could apply, and then we would ask them maybe several other questions. And then we would ask them maybe several other questions in an inter-person interview. So if you try to automate things too fast, then you run into this potential problem of not being able to move quickly on trying to iterate with things like questions on an application and stuff like that. And the third point here is temporary brokenness is much better than permanent paralysis. By that, what I mean is perfection is irrelevant during this stage. When you get to the next stage of growth, what you’re trying to maybe perfect in this one stage is probably going to not matter anyway, and so do not worry about all the edge cases when you’re building something.

[译文 36]

通过单纯的数据收集和观察一切，我们本可以直接在网上表单中提问。所以当我们在网上推出申请表格时，他们可以申请，然后我们可能会再问他们一些问题。接着在面对面访谈中，我们可能还会再问他们几个其他问题。如果你试图过快实现自动化，就会遇到这个潜在问题——无法快速迭代申请表格上的问题等内容。这里的第三点是，暂时的不完善远好过永久的瘫痪。我的意思是，在这个阶段，追求完美是不相关的。当你在进入下一个增长阶段时，你在当前这个阶段试图完善的东西可能到时候根本不重要了，所以在构建产品时不要担心所有的边缘情况。

[段 37]

Just worry about the generic case of who your core user is going to be, and then as you get bigger and bigger, the volume of those edge cases will increase over time, and you’ll want to build for that. And lastly, beware of the Frankenstein approach, which is great, you talk to all these users, they give you all these ideas. The first thing you’re going to want to do is go build every single one of them and then go show them the next day and make them happier. You should definitely listen to user feedback, but when someone tells you to build a feature, you shouldn’t go build it right away. What you should really do is, you know, get to the bottom of why they’re asking you to build the feature.

[译文 37]

只需要考虑你的核心用户是谁这个通用情况，然后随着你越来越大，这些边缘案例的数量会随着时间增加，你会想要为此进行构建。最后，要警惕弗兰肯斯坦式的方法，这很棒，你和所有这些用户交谈，他们给你所有这些想法。你要做的第一件事就是去构建每一个功能，然后第二天去展示给他们，让他们更开心。你绝对应该倾听用户反馈，但是当有人告诉你构建某个功能时，你不应该立即去构建。你真正应该做的其实是，深入了解他们为什么要求你构建这个功能。

[段 38]

Get to the bottom of why they’re asking you to build a feature. It’s usually what they’re suggesting is not the best idea, but what they’re really suggesting is, I have this other problem that you’ve either created for me while using the product, or I really need this problem solved before I’m ever going to pay to use this product. And so figure that out first, instead of piling on a bunch of features, which then hides the problem altogether. So you have a product that you’re ready to ship. And so some people at this point will continue building their product and not ship it at all. And I think the whole idea of being stealth and perfecting the product to no ends is the idea that imitation is cheaper than innovation in terms of time and money and capital.

[译文 38]

弄清楚他们要求你开发这个功能的根本原因。通常他们建议的并不是最好的方案，但他们真正想说的是：我有另一个问题，这个问题是你们在使用产品时给我造成的，或者我需要先解决这个问题才会愿意付费使用这个产品。所以首先要弄清楚这个问题，而不是堆砌一堆功能，因为那样反而会把问题完全掩盖。所以你有一个准备发布的产品。这时有些人会继续开发产品，永远不发布。我认为所谓保持低调、无限完善产品的想法，实际上是基于这样一个理念：在时间和金钱及资本方面，模仿比创新更划算。

[段 39]

And so I think everyone should just always assume in general like there’s going to be, if you have a really good idea, no matter when you launch, someone’s going to fast follow you, and someone’s going to execute as hard as they possibly can to catch up with you. And so there’s no point in holding out and all that user feedback that you can get by getting a lot of users because you feel like, you know, you feel, because you feel paranoid that someone’s going to do this to you. And I hate to keep harping on it, but this is things I see today with founders. This is something I went through as well. And I think unless you’re building something that requires tens of millions of dollars just to start up, there’s really no point in waiting around to launch your product.

[译文 39]

所以我认为每个人都应该始终假设，一般来说，如果你有一个真正的好想法，无论你什么时候 launch，都会有人快速跟进，而且会有人尽可能努力地执行来追赶你。

所以完全没有必要因为担心有人会对你这样做而坚持等待，从而错失通过获得大量用户来获取那些用户反馈的机会。

我讨厌一直唠叨这件事，但这是我今天在 founders 身上看到的现象。

这也是我亲身经历过的。

我认为除非你正在构建的东西需要 tens of millions of dollars 才能启动，否则真的没有必要等待 launch 你的产品。

[段 40]

So say you have something that you feel ready to get lots of users on. So what do you do at this point? So I will look at my time, so I will go over various types of growths in the next slides, but the one thing to note here: early on when you are trying to get, when it’s just you and your co-founder and maybe a couple other people building, you’re not going to be create a team just for growth. It’s going to be one person and one person only, and so you need to really focus, and you need to, you’re going to be tempted to try like five different strategies at one time, but really what you should do is take one channel and really execute on it for an entire week and just focus on that, and then if that works, continue executing on it until it caps out.

[译文 40]

假设你有一个产品，你觉得已经准备好获取大量用户了。那么在这个时候你会怎么做？所以我会看我的时间，我会在接下来的幻灯片里介绍各种增长类型，但这里需要注意的一点是：早期当你试图获取用户时，当只有你和你的联合创始人，也许还有几个人在开发时，你不会为了增长而创建一个团队。只会是一个人，而且只有一个人，所以你需要真正专注，而且你会想要一次尝试大约五种不同的策略，但真正你应该做的是选择一个渠道并真正执行它整整一周，然后专注于它，如果它有效，继续执行直到它达到上限。

[段 41]

If it doesn’t work, then just move on. By doing this, you will feel more certain that… more certain that that channel that you were working on, that initial hypothesis, is wrong. You’ll be, you know, then if you tried only working a third of your time on it over the course of, you know, three or four weeks. So learn one channel at a time. Second is always be, when you find channels that work, you find strategies that work, always be iterating on it. You can potentially give it to someone, like create a playbook and give it to somebody else to iterate on it. But these channels always change. You know, anything from Facebook ads to, you know, even Google ads to, you know, the distribution channels, the environments that you don’t control change all the time, and so you should be always iterating and optimizing for that.

[译文 41]

如果这不起作用，那就继续前进。这样做，你会更加确信……更加确信你正在研究的那个渠道、那个最初的假设是错误的。如果你在三到四周的时间里只花三分之一的时间在这上面，那么你会更有把握。所以一次只学习一个渠道。第二点，当你找到有效的渠道、找到有效的策略时，要不断地对其进行迭代优化。你可以考虑把它交给别人，比如制定一套操作手册，然后交给其他人去进行迭代。但这些渠道总是在变化的。无论是Facebook广告，还是Google广告，或者是其他分销渠道，你无法控制的环境总是在变化，所以你应该不断地对其进行迭代和优化。

[段 42]

And lastly, in the beginning, when you see a channel that fails, you know, just get rid of it and go on and move on. There’s many other things to try. But over time, go back to those channels and look at it again. And what I mean by that as an example is, in the beginning at Homejoy, we had no money. So when we tried to buy users from Marymaid, or not from Marymaid, that’s just an example of a competitor, we tried to buy Google Ads to get users in the door quickly, and what we found was that Marymaids, Mollymaids, all these other national companies, they had more money than us, made all these other national companies, they had more money than us, they were making a lot more money on the job than us, and so they were able to pay for users at a much higher, and a much higher CAC, they were able to acquire them at a much higher cost than us.

[译文 42]

最后，在一开始，当你发现某个渠道不奏效时，就放弃它，继续前进。还有很多其他方法可以尝试。但随着时间推移，你可以回头再审视那些渠道。我的意思是，举个例子，在Homejoy最初的时候，我们没有钱。所以当我们试图从Marymaid获取用户，或者说不是从Marymaid，这只是一个竞争对手的例子，我们试图购买Google Ads来快速获取用户，而我们发现Marymaids、Mollymaids，所有这些全国性公司，他们比我们更有钱，所有这些其他全国性公司，他们比我们有更多的钱，他们每单业务赚的钱比我们多得多，所以他们能够支付更高的用户成本，他们能够以比我们高得多的CAC获取用户。

[段 43]

And so we couldn’t afford that and we have to go to another channel, which turned out to be something else. But today, you know, we make more money on the job, we’re much better at certain things, and so we should probably revisit the idea of buying Google Ads and by going to the SDM channel. And so that’s what I mean by that. And the key to all this is creativity. Performance marketing or marketing or growth in general can be very technical, but it’s actually technical, and you have to be creative because if it was really easy and bland, everyone would be growing right now. And so you always have to find that little thing that no one else is doing and do that to the extreme.

[译文 43]

所以我们负担不起，因此我们不得不转向另一个渠道，结果证明是别的什么。但今天，你知道，我们在工作中赚的钱更多了，我们在某些事情上做得更好了，所以我们可能应该重新考虑购买 Google Ads 并转向 SDM 渠道的想法。这就是我的意思。而这一切的关键是创造力。效果营销或营销或增长总的来说可能非常技术化，但实际上是技术性的，你必须富有创造力，因为如果真的很简单平淡，现在每个人都在增长了。所以你必须始终找到那个别人没有做的细微之处，并做到极致。

[段 44]

So there are three types of growth. When, yeah, three types of growth: sticky, viral, and paid growth. And hopefully I’ll get enough time to talk about all of this. So really briefly, sticky growth is trying to get your existing users to come back and pay you more or use you more. Second is viral growth, so that’s when people talk about you. About you. Second is viral growth, so that’s when people talk about you. So you use a product, you really like it, then you tell 10 other friends, they like it. That’s viral growth. And the third is paid growth. So if you happen to have money in the bank, you’re going to be able to perhaps use part of that money to buy growth.

[译文 44]

所以增长有三种类型。嗯，三种增长类型：粘性增长、病毒式增长和付费增长。希望我有足够的时间来讨论所有这些内容。简单来说，粘性增长是指让你的现有用户回头、支付更多费用或更频繁地使用你的产品。第二个是病毒式增长，也就是当人们谈论你的时候。关于你。第二个是病毒式增长，也就是当人们谈论你的时候。你使用一个产品，非常喜欢它，然后你告诉其他10个朋友，他们也很喜欢。这就是病毒式增长。第三个是付费增长。如果你恰好银行里有钱，你也许能够用一部分钱来购买增长。

[段 45]

And the central theme I’m going to go through is sustainability. There’s a lot of – by sustainable growth, I mean you’re basically not a leaky bucket. Money you put in or time you put in has a good return on investment on it. So sticky growth is, like I said, getting your existing users to keep buying stuff. So the only thing that really matters here is that you deliver a good experience, right? If you deliver a good experience, people are going to keep wanting to use you. If you deliver an addictive experience. People are going to keep wanting to use you. And the way to measure this and to really look at this and how you’re doing over time of whether you are providing good sticky growth is to look at the CLVs and retention cohort analysis.

[译文 45]

我要讲的核心主题是可持续性。关于可持续增长，我指的是你基本上不是一个漏水的桶。你投入的资金或时间都有很好的投资回报。所以粘性增长，就像我说的，是让你的现有用户持续购买东西。所以这里唯一真正重要的是你提供良好的体验，对吧？如果你提供良好的体验，人们就会一直想使用你。如果你提供令人上瘾的体验，人们就会一直想使用你。衡量这一点、真正观察这一点以及随着时间的推移你是否在提供良好的粘性增长的方法是查看CLV和留存队列分析。

[段 46]

Does anyone not know what cohort analysis is, or should I go over it? Okay, so I’ll go over it. So CLV is, some people call it LTV. CLV is called customer lifetime value, which is basically the amount of the net revenue that a customer brings in over a certain amount of period. So a 12-month CLV is how much net revenue does a customer give you over 12 months. Sometimes people look at three months and six months and so on and so forth. So when I say cohort, basically what you’re looking at is this is time. So let’s just call this, yeah, time. So, and this is percent of users coming back to you. So at time zero, right, at period zero, we’re at 100%.

[译文 46]

有没有人不知道什么是队列分析？还是我应该讲一下？好的，那我来讲一下。CLV，有些人叫它LTV。CLV是客户生命周期价值（Customer Lifetime Value），基本上就是客户在一定时期内带来的净收入金额。12个月的CLV就是客户在12个月内给你的净收入。有时人们会看3个月、6个月等等。所以当我说队列的时候，基本上你要看的就是这个，这是时间。我们就叫这个，是的，时间。这是回头客的百分比。所以在时间零点，也就是第0期，我们处于100%。

[段 47]

So cohort is another name also for, like, customer segments and stuff like that. So you can, like, you might look at the female versus male cohort, people in Atlanta, Georgia versus people in Sacramento, California. But the most common one is by month. So cohort equals month. And let’s just say for this exercise we are looking at March of 2012. So March 2012, 100% of people, you’ll have like n equals 100 people. So 100% of the people obviously are using your product because that’s the definition. Now, one month later, you might have — the scale is not right, but — 50% might come back, and so you come here. Now, in the second month, how many people that came in March come back two months later, and that might be down here.

[译文 47]

所以cohort也是customer segments等的另一个名称。所以你可能会看female versus male cohort，或者Georgia州Atlanta的人 versus California州Sacramento的人。但最常见的是按month来划分。所以cohort就等于month。假设在这个练习中我们看的是2012年3月。所以2012年3月，100%的人，你会得到大约n等于100人。所以100%的人显然在使用你的产品，因为这是定义。现在，一个月后，你可能有——刻度不太对，但——50%的人会回来，然后你到这里。现在，在第二个月，有多少在3月加入的人两个月后会回来，这可能会在下面这里。

[段 48]

And so over time, you’ll have a curve that looks like this. There’s always some initial drop-off. The reasons why people don’t stay after the first use is it wasn’t worth it, had a bad experience, stuff like that. And then over time, what you want is you want this to flatten out over time so that your churn basically goes to 0%. That means you attrition out less and less users over time. And these over here kind of become your core customers. These are the ones that are sort of staying with you for a long time. And now core analysis, or using this as a way to show if you have sticky growth or not, is now say you’re, say, you know, say we’re one year later and you’ve built a bunch of stuff, right?

[译文 48]

随着时间推移，你会得到一条这样的曲线。总会有一些最初的流失。人们首次使用后不再继续的原因包括：不值得、有过不好的体验，诸如此类。然后随着时间推移，你希望这条曲线逐渐变平，这样你的 churn 基本上会趋近于 0%。这意味着随着时间推移，你流失的用户越来越少。而这些留下来的用户会成为你的核心客户。这些是长期陪伴你的用户。而核心分析，或者说用这个来展示你是否拥有 sticky growth，就是这样——比如说，过了一年，你已经构建了很多东西，对吧？

[段 49]

And you’ve built a bunch of stuff, right? You graph out the same thing, and hopefully what you’ll see is that you have a curve like this. That is, in the first period, even more people than 50% came back to you, and more and more people are sticking with you. A really bad retention curve looks like this, which is like, after the first use, they just hate you so much, no one even comes back. It’s just like zero, right? And I don’t know what kind of business that is. I mean, it’s obviously a shitty business, but I can’t explain a good business that has a retention curve like that. So anyway, so over time, as you are thinking of strategies to increase this curve, like keep making it go up and up and up, you want to basically look at this analysis over time to see if that strategy is working for you.

[译文 49]

你构建了一堆东西，对吧？你把同样的东西画成图表，希望你看到的是一条这样的曲线。也就是说，在第一个周期，超过50%的人会回来找你，越来越多的人会留下来。一条非常糟糕的留存曲线是这样的：在第一次使用之后，他们非常讨厌你，以至于没有人再回来。基本上就是零，对吧？我不知道这是什么样的业务。我的意思是，这显然是个糟糕的业务，但我无法解释一个好的业务会有这样的留存曲线。所以不管怎样，随着时间推移，当你考虑各种策略来提升这条曲线，比如让它不断上升，你需要基本上随着时间查看这个分析，看看你实施的策略是否有效。

[段 50]

Okay. Does that make sense? Okay, cool. The second kind of growth is viral growth. And like sticky growth, you need to also deliver good experience. But on top of that, you need to deliver a really, really good experience. Like what’s going to make these people shout out loud on Twitter and Facebook or whatever and tell all their friends and email all their friends and family members about you? You have to really deliver a good experience. Combined with that is you need to have really good mechanics for the referral program itself. Like you have a hundred customers who really want to talk about you now, how are they going to talk about you? So in that sense, the viral growth strategy is all really about one, building good experience, but if you have that, it’s how do you build a good referral program?

[译文 50]

好的。这说得通吗？好的，酷。第二种增长方式是病毒式增长。和粘性增长一样，你也需要提供良好的体验。但在此之上，你需要提供非常非常好的体验。什么样的体验能让这些人在 Twitter 和 Facebook 或其他平台上大声呼喊，告诉他们所有的朋友，并通过电子邮件把他们所有的朋友和家人介绍给你？你必须真正提供良好的体验。与此同时，你需要有一个非常好的推荐计划机制。比如你有 100 个现在真的想谈论你的客户，他们将如何谈论你？所以从某种意义上说，病毒式增长策略实际上就是关于一件事：建立良好的体验，但如果你已经有了良好的体验，那就是你如何建立一个好的推荐计划？

[段 51]

And so I’ve listed the three main parts of that. One is the customer touch points, which is where are people learning that they can refer other people? So that might be just after they book or after they sign up. There is, you know, usually you see these like right after you sign up, for whatever reason most people just immediately tell you to invite all their friends, even though you’ve never used the product before. And so, but that’s a customer touch point. It’s just right after you sign up. A better one is after they’ve used the product after a while and you see that they’re highly engaged, then to show them that link and get them to send it out to everyone.

[译文 51]

所以我列出了其中的三个主要部分。一个是客户触点，也就是人们了解到他们可以推荐他人的地方。这可能就是在他们预约之后或注册之后。你知道的，通常你会在注册后立即看到这些，无论什么原因，大多数人都会立即告诉你邀请所有朋友，尽管你之前从未使用过这个产品。所以，那就是一个客户触点。这就是在注册后立即出现的。一个更好的是在他们使用产品一段时间后，当你看到他们高度参与时，然后向他们展示那个链接，让他们发送给所有人。

[段 52]

Another one is if you’re doing more of a platform-type play, like for HomeJoy, we actually go inside the homes. So another customer touchpoint is when the cleaning professional is inside the home, they can have a leave behind, and we can show them something there too as well. So you want to basically put the customer touch points and put the actual link or whatever it is how they’re going to refer all their friends at a point in time when they’re highly engaged and you know they’re loving you. Second is program mechanics. And so that’s sort of like, you know, the most common thing I’ve seen is $10 for $10. That is, you get $10 if you invite your friend and they use it and they get $10.

[译文 52]

另一种情况是，如果你做的是平台型业务，比如 HomeJoy，我们会进入客户家中。所以另一个客户接触点是在清洁专业人员在家中的时候，他们可以留下一些东西，我们也可以在那里向他们展示一些内容。所以你基本上想在客户接触点设置真实的链接或者他们推荐朋友的方式，选择在他们高度参与并且你知道他们喜欢你的时候。第二个是项目机制。这就是，你知道，我见过的最常见的做法是 $10 for $10。也就是说，如果你的朋友使用了你推荐的服务，你和你的朋友各获得 $10。

[段 53]

And so you should try different types of mechanics in that sense and try to optimize for, you know, whatever works for you. You know, it could be $25 for $25, it could be $10 for zero, it could be many, many of these things. And lastly, it’s, you know, when your friend clicks on the link, on your referral link, when they come back to the site, it’s very important to really optimize that conversion flow of how they’re going to sign up. Sometimes you need to just sell them in a different manner or upsell that their friend has suggested they use this and so on and so forth. So all these combined, you need to really play around with these on different dimensions and come up with a good referral program.

[译文 53]

所以你应该尝试不同类型的机制，在这个意义上，尝试优化对你有效的任何方式。你知道，可能是$25换$25，可能是$10换零，可能是很多很多这样的事情。

最后，你知道，当你的朋友点击链接，点击你的推荐链接，当他们回到网站时，优化他们注册时的转化流程非常重要。有时候你需要用不同的方式推销他们，或者追加销售，说他们的朋友建议他们使用这个等等。

所以所有这些结合在一起，你需要真正在不同的维度上尝试这些，并想出一个好的推荐计划。

[段 54]

And lastly, it’s paid growth. So examples of paid growth is this right here. And these are the most obvious ones, but I’m sure you guys can think of more. And paid growth is basically, you know, you happen to have money, you can spend. You might have credit cards, whatever, but you can spend something to get users. So the correct way to think about paid growth is that, okay, you’re going to put money, you’re going to risk putting money out there, what are you going to get in return? The simple way to think about it is, is your CLV, your customer lifetime, the amount of money, the net revenue, the amount of money that people, you know, that your customer returns back to you, is it more than your CAC?

[译文 54]

最后，是付费增长。付费增长的例子就是这些。这些是最明显的例子，但相信你们能想到更多。付费增长基本上就是，你有资金，可以投入。你可能有信用卡或其他方式，但你可以花钱来获取用户。所以思考付费增长正确的方式是，你要投入资金，你要承担投入资金的风险，你会得到什么回报？简单来说就是，你的CLV（客户终身价值），即净收入，客户返还给你的金额，是否大于你的CAC（客户获取成本）？

[段 55]

And your CAC is an abbreviation for customer acquisition cost. So an example is, you know, you pay, actually the slide here has an example here. So say you run a bunch of ads, you have four ads. Over 12 months, the customer is worth $300 to you. Each one of these ads, when you click on it, the CPC costs different types of money. And then when they click on it, when they click on the ad, then they have to come to your site and sign up or buy something. And the conversion rates are different for all these ads. And then the CAC is calculated simply by the CPC divided by the conversion. And so you see that there’s different acquisition costs for different types of ads.

[译文 55]

你的CAC是customer acquisition cost（客户获取成本）的缩写。举个例子，你们看，这个幻灯片上有个例子。比如说你投放了一批广告，一共四个广告。在12个月内，这个客户对你价值300美元。每个广告，当你点击时，CPC的费用都不同。然后当用户点击广告后，他们必须来到你的网站，注册或购买东西。所有这些广告的转化率都不同。CAC的计算方法很简单，就是CPC除以转化率。所以你可以看到不同类型的广告有不同的获取成本。

[段 56]

And to determine whether that was a good ad or bad ad, all you have to do is CLV minus CAC, is it more than zero? If it’s at zero, then that’s fine, but hopefully it’s actually more than zero, and so you actually are earning a profit on it. So we see that despite the CLVs remaining the same and the conversions being higher and lower, the CAC changes and that’s how you determine whether the ad is effective or not. There’s sometimes, you know, some ads that might seem good actually don’t seem so good at the end of the day. Now, the advanced way of looking at it is you can look at this for your whole entire customer base, for all, you know, aggregating all your customers together.

[译文 56]

要判断一个广告是好是坏，你只需要用 CLV 减去 CAC，结果是否大于零？如果等于零，那还可以，但最好实际上是大于零的，这样你才能真正从这个广告中获利。所以我们看到，尽管 CLV 保持不变，转化时高时低，但 CAC 会变化，这就是你判断广告是否有效的依据。有时候，有些广告看起来不错，但实际上最终并不怎么样。现在，更高级的方法是你可以针对你的整个客户群来看，把所有客户汇总在一起进行分析。

[段 57]

But the advanced, the better way of looking at it is to break it down by customer segments. So, you know, if you have, for example, if you’re building a marketplace for country music, I don’t know, the CLVs of someone in Nashville, Tennessee is going to be much larger than the CLVs and lifetime value of someone in Czechoslovakia. So, or I just assume that’s the case anyway. So you’ll need to, you want to make sure that when you’re buying ads for these different types of cohorts or these types of customer segments, that you know what the differences are, and that you don’t want to mix everything together. So the last point on payback time and sustainability: you know, I think a lot of businesses get in trouble and it turns into a bad business when they start spending beyond their means, and it has a lot to do with risk tolerance or risk, you know, how much risk you’re willing to take on.

[译文 57]

但更高级、更优的方法是按客户细分来分解它。所以，比如说，如果你在搭建一个乡村音乐市场，我不知道，纳什维尔、田纳西州的某人的CLV会比捷克斯洛伐克的某人的CLV和生命周期价值高得多。所以，或者我只是假设情况就是如此。所以，你需要确保，当你在为这些不同类型的群体或这些类型的客户细分购买广告时，你知道其中的差异，而且你不希望把一切都混在一起。所以，关于回本时间和可持续性的最后一点：我认为很多企业在开始入不敷出时会陷入困境，这会变成一个糟糕的企业，而且这与风险承受能力或风险有关，你知道，你愿意承担多大的风险。

[段 58]

So when you look at these CLVs, let’s just suppose, you know, you get a customer for 300, a customer is worth $300 after 12 months. That is, in the first month, they’re worth $100. If you wait to the end of the 12-month period, then they give you the other $200. But if in the first period you’re actually paying $200 for them, then you’re in the hole for $100 until the end of the 12-month period. And that’s when you start getting into potentially unsustainable growth, which is something that could happen where, at the end of the 12 months, you don’t actually get the $200 from the customer, and you end up in a very bad situation.

[译文 58]

所以当你们看这些CLV（客户生命周期价值）时，假设一下，你们获得一个客户的成本是$300，一个客户在12个月后价值$300。也就是说，在第一个月，他们价值$100。如果你们等到12个月期限结束，他们就会给你另外$200。但如果在第一个阶段你们实际上为他们支付了$200，那么在12个月期限结束之前，你们就亏损了$100。而这就是你们开始陷入潜在不可持续增长的时候，这种情况可能会发生，即在12个月结束时，你们实际上并没有从客户那里获得那$200，最终你们会陷入非常糟糕的境地。

[段 59]

And essentially, just at the end of the day, you could be running out of money. And if you’re doing this with credit cards, you will definitely find that you’re going to have to declare bankruptcy very soon. So, again, payback time is very important. A safe one to go with is three months. If you have very high risk, if you’re very risk-loving, maybe 12 months is better. Beyond 12 months is very much an unsafe territory. Okay. Okay. How much time do I have? Five minutes. Okay. So I’ll just go into this. So the art of pivoting. So a lot of people ask me, Homejoy went through, Homejoy in its current concept was literally the 13th idea we fully built out, and tried to execute on, and tried to get customers for.

[译文 59]

本质上，到最后，你可能会把钱花光。如果你用信用卡做这些，你肯定会发现自己很快就要申请破产了。所以，再说一次，回本时间非常重要。一个安全的选择是三个月。如果你的风险很高，如果你非常喜欢冒险，也许12个月更好。超过12个月就是非常不安全的领域了。好的，好的。我还有多少时间？五分钟。好的，那我就直接讲这个。所以是关于转型的艺术。很多人问我，Homejoy经历了什么，Homejoy目前这个概念实际上是我们完全构建出来的第13个想法，并且尝试执行，尝试获取客户。

[段 60]

And so a lot of the questions I get is, how did you even get to that 13th idea? And how did you decide when to move on? And so the best guidance I can give on that is to kind of look at these three criteria, which is once you realize you can’t grow, or once you realize, you know, despite building out all these great features and talking to all these users, none of them stick or none of them, you know, you don’t have any good high-retaining users, or the economics of the business just doesn’t make sense, then once you make that realization, you just need to move on. And I think the trickiest one is probably the growth one, because there’s so many stories out there where a founder stuck with the idea and then after three years, all of a sudden it started growing.

[译文 60]

所以我收到的很多问题都是，你是怎么想到第13个想法的？以及你是如何决定什么时候该放弃的？所以关于这一点，我能给出的最好建议是关注这三个标准：第一是当你意识到你无法增长的时候；或者当你意识到，尽管你开发了所有这些很棒的功能，并与所有这些用户交谈，但没有一个能留存下来；或者你没有很好的高留存用户；或者这门生意的经济模型根本说不通。那么一旦你意识到这一点，你就需要继续前进。我认为最棘手的可能是增长这一条，因为有很多这样的故事，一位创始人坚持这个想法，然后在三年后，突然开始增长了。

[段 61]

So the trick here is basically what you really should do is you should have a growth plan when you start out, which is, you know, you should ideally just have, what is an optimistic but realistic goal? What is an optimistic but realistic way to grow this business? And so it might look something like this, and this is number of users. So, you know, in week one, you just want one user. In week two, you want maybe two users, and so on and so forth. And you can keep doubling, you know, up and up. So in week one, you should basically do as much as possible, build what you have to build to get that one user.

[译文 61]

所以这里的技巧是，你真正应该做的是，在一开始就要有一个增长计划，也就是说，你理想情况下应该有的是一个什么样的目标？一个乐观但现实的目标？一个乐观但现实的增长业务的方式是什么？所以这可能是这样的，这是用户数量。所以，第一周，你只需要一个用户。第二周，你可能想要两个用户，以此类推。然后你可以持续翻倍，不断增长。所以第一周，你应该尽可能多地去做，去构建你需要构建的东西来获得那一个用户。

[段 62]

And then week two, and so forth, you build whatever you need to get two users, four users, eight users. In the beginning, it should be fairly easy. If you have a product that people actually want, you should be able to maintain this growth curve pretty easily just by walking around and manually finding people. It’s when you get to, like, you need 100 users a week where you need some of these more advanced growth strategies to start working. And so what I tell people is, usually if you’re fully executing on your product and you’re really working really, really hard, then if you go three or four weeks in a row of no growth or backwards growth, then it’s time to maybe consider a pivot, in the sense that not starting over, like completely come up with a new idea, but you’re probably fundamentally doing something wrong because in that early stage of a startup, you should always be growing.

[译文 62]

然后是第二周，以此类推，你需要构建任何你需要的东西来获得2个用户、4个用户、8个用户。一开始，这应该相当容易。如果你有一个人们真正想要的产品，你应该能够通过四处走动和手动寻找用户来相当容易地保持这种增长曲线。但当你需要每周获得100个用户时，你就需要一些更高级的增长策略开始发挥作用了。所以我告诉人们的是，通常情况下，如果你完全在执行你的产品，而且你真的非常非常努力地工作，那么如果你连续三到四周都没有增长或增长倒退，那就是时候考虑转型了——我的意思不是从头开始，完全想出一个新想法，而是你可能在根本上做错了什么，因为在创业的早期阶段，你应该始终保持增长。

[段 63]

And so it’s not, and this is optimistically what it looks like. This is kind of the growth curve I set forth and put out when I started HomeJoy. But really what it looks like is like this. You want to make sure that when you’re in a lull, like over here, that you don’t just stop. That’s why you should wait two to three weeks. As long as you keep working hard, you’ll eventually get back here, and you’ll see a trend like this over time. Cool. That’s pivoting, and that’s it. I can take questions at this point. One question, one question. So one question online was, if your users have a product that they’re already somewhat comfortable with, how do you get them to switch to yours?

[译文 63]

所以事情并非如此，这是乐观情况下它的样子。这是我创立 HomeJoy 时提出的增长曲线。但实际上它是这样的。你要确保当你处于低潮期时，比如在这里，你不会就此停止。所以你应该等待两到三周。只要你继续努力，你最终会回到这里，随着时间的推移，你会看到这样的趋势。好的。这就是转型，就是这样。现在我可以回答问题了。一个问题，一个问题。网上有一个问题是，如果你的用户已经有一款他们已经比较熟悉的产品，你如何让他们转向你的产品？

[段 64]

Right, so there’s always a switchover cost. I’ll tell you the example of HomeJoy. So HomeJoy, we actually were creating a new market in the sense that a lot of our initial users never had cleanings before, so it was pretty simple to get them on board. And a lot of people who have cleaners already really trust their cleaner, and to get them to come and use something else is actually probably the most difficult task in the world. And so when you’re building things and trying to get people to switch over to you, what you really need to do is find the moments where your product or what you’re offering is much better or very much differentiated from the existing solution they have.

[译文 64]

好的，所以总是有转换成本的。我给你们讲个HomeJoy的例子。HomeJoy，实际上我们在创造一个新的市场，因为我们的很多早期用户之前从来没有使用过清洁服务，所以让他们加入非常简单。而很多已经有清洁人员的人非常信任他们的清洁工，让他们转而来使用其他东西，这可能是世界上最困难的任务了。所以当你在做产品、想让人们转用你的产品时，你真正需要做的是找到那些你的产品或你所提供的东西比他们现有方案好很多或者有很大差异的时刻。

[段 65]

So an example is someone who had a regular cleaner and maybe they had a party one day, and they needed the cleaning almost the next day. And because Homejoy in most of the areas has next-day availability, they would just come to Homejoy and use it because they knew they couldn’t get their regular cleaner. And once they start using the product, then that’s when they start realizing the little advantages of using Homejoy, which adds up to a big advantage. A lot of things are realizing that leaving cash out or leaving checks was really annoying, and so being able to do online payments was more convenient, being able to book, cancel, reschedule according to your own schedule was very convenient, and so on and so forth.

[译文 65]

所以一个例子是，有个人原本有个固定的家政服务员，也许某天他们举办了聚会，然后几乎第二天就需要打扫服务。因为Homejoy在大多数地区都有次日可预约的服务，他们就会直接找Homejoy，因为知道自己没办法约到原来的家政服务员。一旦他们开始使用这个服务，这时候他们才会开始意识到使用Homejoy的种种小优势，而累积起来就是一大优势。很多人意识到把现金或支票放在外面真的很麻烦，所以能够在线支付更加方便，能够根据自己的时间表预约、取消、改期都非常方便，等等。

[段 66]

And so it’s just, you know, it’s really hard to, a lot of people when they build a product are like, these 50 things are better than a little bit better than the existing solution. It’s really hard, even if the benefits outweigh the switchover cost, it’s really hard to actually tell that to a user and try to get them to aggregate all those benefits over many little things. It’s better to just have one or two things that clearly differentiate yourself from a product. Thank you very much. Yeah. Thank you.

[译文 66]

所以你知道，很多人在打造产品时会觉得，这50个方面比现有解决方案好一点点，但实际上很难，即使这些好处加起来超过了转换成本，也很难真正向用户传达这些信息，让他们把很多小细节的好处全部累积起来。最好就是只靠一两件事来清楚地让自己与竞品区分开来。谢谢大家。好的，谢谢。

Source: bilibili BV1oWKpzoE1Z